Al Diriyah
vs
NEOM
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al Diriyah 0–1 NEOM
The model makes it 32% Al Diriyah, 31% draw, 37% NEOM — fair odds of 3.13, 3.23 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Al Diriyah 1.05, NEOM 1.18.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Al Diriyah are 9th on 11 points from 8 games; NEOM are 5th on 16 points from 8 games — Pro League.
- Al Diriyah have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Al-Nassr.
- NEOM are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Al-Hazm.
More Saudi Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al Diriyah vs NEOM
Has the model earned this number?
It puts NEOM at 37% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Al Diriyah vs NEOM
Al Diriyah
- L0-3away to Al-Nassr9 October 2026
- D0-0Abha13 September 2026
- W2-1away to Al-Fateh9 September 2026
- L0-2Al-Qadisiyah FC3 September 2026
- W3-0away to Al-Ettifaq29 August 2026
NEOM
- D1-1away to Al-Hazm10 October 2026
- W4-2Al-Fateh13 September 2026
- W2-0away to Al-Hilal7 September 2026
- W3-0Al Khaleej Saihat3 September 2026
- L0-1away to Al Riyadh28 August 2026
What these results say
- NEOM scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Al Diriyah | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 11 |
| 5 | NEOM | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Al Diriyah and NEOM
Al Diriyah
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
NEOM
GoalsAssists
- A. Lacazette51
- A. Koné41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Al Diriyah carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.66 for NEOM. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.05 goals for Al Diriyah and 1.18 for NEOM. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al Diriyah rate 0.57 in attack and 1.05 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; NEOM rate 0.76 and 1.12.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Al Diriyah a 0% chance of the title and NEOM 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives NEOM the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Al Diriyah against 1.18 for NEOM. Al Diriyah's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.12 for NEOM.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Al Diriyah at home · NEOM away
League matches only, Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Al Diriyah 8, NEOM 8.
NEOM score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Al Diriyah have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Al Diriyah
- at Al-Faisaly FC5 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 38%
- at Al-Hilal20 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 13%
NEOM
- at Al-Ittihad5 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 33%
- vs Al Kholood20 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 54%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.