Foolad FC
vs
Aluminium Arak
Persian Gulf Pro League prediction
Our model says: Foolad FC 1–0 Aluminium Arak
The model makes it 48% Foolad FC, 27% draw, 25% Aluminium Arak — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Foolad FC 1.67, Aluminium Arak 1.05.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Foolad FC are 5th on 15 points from 8 games; Aluminium Arak are 6th on 13 points from 8 games — Persian Gulf Pro League.
- Foolad FC are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Malavan.
- Aluminium Arak are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Fajr Sepasi.
- Last 6 meetings: Foolad FC 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 5 December 2025, ended Foolad FC 0–0 Aluminium Arak.
More Persian Gulf Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Foolad FC vs Aluminium Arak
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Foolad FC at 48% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Foolad FC vs Aluminium Arak
Foolad FC
- W2-1away to Malavan13 October 2026
- W2-1Mes Shahr-e Babak8 October 2026
- W1-0Fajr Sepasi7 September 2026
- L0-2away to Kheybar Khorramabad2 September 2026
- D0-0Esteghlal FC28 August 2026
Aluminium Arak
- L1-2away to Fajr Sepasi13 October 2026
- D1-1Malavan8 October 2026
- D0-0Esteghlal FC6 September 2026
- W2-0away to Gol Gohar1 September 2026
- D2-2Kheybar Khorramabad28 August 2026
What these results say
- Aluminium Arak failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aluminium Arak scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Persian Gulf Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Foolad FC | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 15 |
| 6 | Aluminium Arak | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Foolad FC vs Aluminium Arak
- 5 December 2025Foolad FC 0–0 Aluminium ArakPersian Gulf Pro League
- 14 March 2025Foolad FC 2–0 Aluminium ArakPersian Gulf Pro League
- 20 October 2024Aluminium Arak 4–2 Foolad FCPersian Gulf Pro League
- 1 May 2024Aluminium Arak 1–1 Foolad FCPersian Gulf Pro League
- 10 November 2023Foolad FC 1–0 Aluminium ArakPersian Gulf Pro League
- 18 May 2023Foolad FC 2–2 Aluminium ArakPersian Gulf Pro League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Foolad FC carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.41 for Aluminium Arak. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.67 goals for Foolad FC and 1.05 for Aluminium Arak. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Foolad FC rate 0.68 in attack and 1.38 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Aluminium Arak rate 0.63 and 1.51.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Foolad FC a 2.1% chance of the title and Aluminium Arak 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Foolad FC the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Foolad FC against 1.05 for Aluminium Arak. Foolad FC's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.51 for Aluminium Arak.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Foolad FC at home · Aluminium Arak away
League matches only, Persian Gulf Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Persian Gulf Pro League matches this season: Foolad FC 8, Aluminium Arak 8.
Aluminium Arak score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Foolad FC have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Foolad FC
- at Chadormalu SC6 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 36%
Aluminium Arak
- vs Mes Shahr-e Babak6 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 58%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.