Al Shabab
vs
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al Shabab 1–2 Al-Ahli Jeddah
The model makes it 19% Al Shabab, 22% draw, 59% Al-Ahli Jeddah — fair odds of 5.26, 4.55 and 1.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (10%).
Expected goals: Al Shabab 1.11, Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.34.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Al-Ahli Jeddah are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- Al Shabab are 13th on 7 points from 8 games; Al-Ahli Jeddah are 6th on 15 points from 8 games — Pro League.
- Al Shabab have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Al Taawon.
- Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-0 win away to Al-Fateh.
- Last 6 meetings: Al-Ahli Jeddah 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 13 February 2026, ended Al Shabab 2–5 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
More Saudi Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Ahli Jeddah at 59% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al Shabab
- W3-0Al Taawon11 October 2026
- D0-0Al-Fayha12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Al Kholood9 September 2026
- L0-2Al-Hilal4 September 2026
- D1-1away to Al-Hazm30 August 2026
Al-Ahli Jeddah
- W4-0away to Al-Fateh9 October 2026
- W3-1Al-Hazm11 September 2026
- L2-3away to Al-Qadisiyah FC8 September 2026
- W5-0Al Riyadh4 September 2026
- L0-3away to Al-Hilal1 September 2026
What these results say
- Al Shabab failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Al-Ahli Jeddah had three goals or more.
- Al-Ahli Jeddah scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Al Shabab | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 7 |
| 6 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
- 13 February 2026Al Shabab 2–5 Al-Ahli JeddahPro League
- 17 October 2025Al-Ahli Jeddah 1–1 Al ShababPro League
- 11 May 2025Al Shabab 3–1 Al-Ahli JeddahPro League
- 10 January 2025Al-Ahli Jeddah 3–2 Al ShababPro League
- 11 May 2024Al Shabab 1–2 Al-Ahli JeddahPro League
- 25 November 2023Al-Ahli Jeddah 0–0 Al ShababPro League
Leading scorers: Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al Shabab
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Al-Ahli Jeddah
GoalsAssists
- I. Toney111
- Trincão52
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Al Shabab carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.91 for Al-Ahli Jeddah. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.11 goals for Al Shabab and 2.34 for Al-Ahli Jeddah. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al Shabab rate 0.68 in attack and 1.42 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al-Ahli Jeddah rate 1.12 and 1.00.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Al Shabab a 0% chance of the title and Al-Ahli Jeddah 7.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Al Shabab against 2.34 for Al-Ahli Jeddah. Al Shabab's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.12/1 for Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Al Shabab at home · Al-Ahli Jeddah away
League matches only, Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Al Shabab 8, Al-Ahli Jeddah 8.
Al-Ahli Jeddah score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Al Shabab have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Al Shabab
- at Abha5 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 40%
- vs Al-Ettifaq20 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 36%
Al-Ahli Jeddah
- at Al Sadd2 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 48%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.