Esteghlal FC
vs
Shams Azar Qazvin
Persian Gulf Pro League prediction
Our model says: Esteghlal FC 2–0 Shams Azar Qazvin
The model makes it 63% Esteghlal FC, 23% draw, 14% Shams Azar Qazvin — fair odds of 1.59, 4.35 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Esteghlal FC 2.05, Shams Azar Qazvin 0.71.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Esteghlal FC are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- Esteghlal FC are 3rd on 16 points from 8 games; Shams Azar Qazvin are 15th on 6 points from 8 games — Persian Gulf Pro League.
- Esteghlal FC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (1 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Tractor Sazi.
- Shams Azar Qazvin are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Paykan.
- Last 6 meetings: Esteghlal FC 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 5 February 2026, ended Esteghlal FC 3–2 Shams Azar Qazvin.
More Persian Gulf Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Esteghlal FC vs Shams Azar Qazvin
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Esteghlal FC at 63% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Esteghlal FC vs Shams Azar Qazvin
Esteghlal FC
- D1-1away to Tractor Sazi8 October 2026
- W1-0Paykan10 September 2026
- D0-0away to Aluminium Arak6 September 2026
- D1-1Persepolis FC2 September 2026
- D0-0away to Foolad FC28 August 2026
Shams Azar Qazvin
- D1-1away to Paykan10 October 2026
- L2-3Gol Gohar10 September 2026
- L0-1away to Chadormalu SC6 September 2026
- D0-0Tractor Sazi1 September 2026
- W2-0away to Nassaji Mazandaran28 August 2026
What these results say
- Esteghlal FC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Esteghlal FC had two goals or fewer.
- Esteghlal FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Shams Azar Qazvin failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Shams Azar Qazvin had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Persian Gulf Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Esteghlal FC | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 16 |
| 15 | Shams Azar Qazvin | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Esteghlal FC vs Shams Azar Qazvin
- 5 February 2026Esteghlal FC 3–2 Shams Azar QazvinPersian Gulf Pro League
- 26 September 2025Shams Azar Qazvin 1–1 Esteghlal FCPersian Gulf Pro League
- 13 February 2025Shams Azar Qazvin 1–2 Esteghlal FCHazfi Cup
- 20 January 2025Esteghlal FC 0–1 Shams Azar QazvinPersian Gulf Pro League
- 16 August 2024Shams Azar Qazvin 1–2 Esteghlal FCPersian Gulf Pro League
- 19 April 2024Esteghlal FC 3–2 Shams Azar QazvinPersian Gulf Pro League
The two sides
Esteghlal FC carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.3 for Shams Azar Qazvin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.05 goals for Esteghlal FC and 0.71 for Shams Azar Qazvin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Esteghlal FC rate 0.74 in attack and 1.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Shams Azar Qazvin rate 0.57 and 1.70.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Esteghlal FC a 16.7% chance of the title and Shams Azar Qazvin 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Esteghlal FC the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Esteghlal FC against 0.71 for Shams Azar Qazvin. Esteghlal FC's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.7 for Shams Azar Qazvin.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Esteghlal FC at home · Shams Azar Qazvin away
League matches only, Persian Gulf Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Persian Gulf Pro League matches this season: Esteghlal FC 8, Shams Azar Qazvin 8.
Esteghlal FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Shams Azar Qazvin have let in 3 there.
Shams Azar Qazvin score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Esteghlal FC have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Esteghlal FC
- vs Al Shamal3 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 64%
- at Esteghlal Khuzestan7 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 53%
Shams Azar Qazvin
- vs Sanat Naft5 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 54%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.