Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
vs
Ajman
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2–1 Ajman
The model makes it 60% Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, 22% draw, 18% Ajman — fair odds of 1.67, 4.55 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.34, Ajman 1.05.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's rating is built from 33 UAE Pro League matches and Ajman's from 33, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 413 matches.
Key facts
- Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are 4th on 13 points from 7 games; Ajman are 8th on 10 points from 7 games — Pro League.
- Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Sharjah FC.
- Ajman are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Baniyas SC.
- Last 6 meetings: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 28 January 2026, ended Ajman 0–1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
More UAE Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Ajman
Has the model earned this number?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 60%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Ajman
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Pro League
- L0-2away to Sharjah FC7 November 2026
- W2-0Al Ain17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Dubai United10 September 2026
- L1-3Al-Jazira5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Al-Wasl FC28 August 2026
Ajman
Pro League
- D1-1Baniyas SC8 November 2026
- L1-3Sharjah FC18 October 2026
- L2-3Al-Ittihad Kalba11 September 2026
- W2-1away to Al Nasr6 September 2026
- L0-3away to Al-Jazira29 August 2026
What these results say
- Shabab Al Ahli Dubai scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai had two goals or fewer.
- Ajman conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Ajman failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ajman scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
United Arab Emirates Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 13 |
| 8 | Ajman | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Chance to finish in the top two · 38% today
Ajman
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 3% today
From our Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Ajman
- 28 January 2026Ajman 0–1 Shabab Al Ahli DubaiPro League
- 15 January 2026Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3–1 AjmanPro League
- 8 February 2025Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3–1 AjmanPro League
- 25 January 2025Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2–1 AjmanPresidents Cup
- 8 September 2024Ajman 1–1 Shabab Al Ahli DubaiLeague Cup
- 30 August 2024Ajman 1–2 Shabab Al Ahli DubaiPro League
Leading scorers: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Ajman
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Ajman
GoalsAssists
- Victor Henrique31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 17.5% chance of the title and Ajman 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Shabab Al Ahli Dubai v Ajman has moved
First published on 6 Nov at 65% / 20% / 15% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 60% / 22% / 18%: the biggest move is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win60%▼ −5
- Draw22%▲ +2
- Ajman win18%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.34 expected goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai against 1.05 for Ajman. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.81 for Ajman.
How the model reaches 60% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win. Then home advantage adds 3 points, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's ratings add 9 points and Ajman's ratings add 11 points, which lands on the published 60%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage40%+3
- Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's ratings49%+9
- Ajman's ratings60%+11
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home · Ajman away
League matches only, Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 7, Ajman 7.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Ajman have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
- vs Al-Qadisiyah FC24 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 30%
- at Al Nasr4 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 43%
- at Al-Ahli Jeddah8 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 21%
- at Baniyas SC12 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 57%
- vs Al Wahda FC25 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 48%
Ajman
- vs Dubai United4 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 49%
- at Khorfakkan13 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 38%
- vs Al-Wasl FC23 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 25%
- at Al Ain29 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 15%
- at Al-Dhafra2 Jan · Pro Leaguewin 41%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.