Regular Season - 9 · 21 November 2026, 12:45 UTC

Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr Pro League prediction

Baniyas Stadium, Abu Dhabi

Our model says: Baniyas SC 0–1 Al Nasr

The model makes it 26% Baniyas SC, 27% draw, 47% Al Nasr — fair odds of 3.85, 3.70 and 2.13.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Baniyas SC 1.07, Al Nasr 1.63.

Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Edge to Al Nasr: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Baniyas SC's rating is built from 33 UAE Pro League matches and Al Nasr's from 33, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 413 matches.

Key facts

  • Baniyas SC are bottom on 2 points from 7 games; Al Nasr are 7th on 11 points from 7 games — Pro League.
  • Baniyas SC have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Ajman.
  • Al Nasr are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 4-1 win at home to Dubai United.
  • Last 6 meetings: Baniyas SC 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 23 October 2026, ended Al Nasr 0–1 Baniyas SC.

More UAE Pro League predictions

All UAE Pro League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr

53%
Both teams to score
51%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Baniyas SC win Draw Al Nasr win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 0–110%
  3. 1–210%
  4. 0–29%
  5. 0–07%
  6. 1–07%
  7. 2–16%

Scores read Baniyas SC first; the other scorelines share the remaining 39%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Al Nasr at 47%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr

Baniyas SC

Pro League

  • D1-1away to Ajman8 November 2026
  • L0-2Al-Wasl FC16 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Khorfakkan11 September 2026
  • L0-1Hatta SC5 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Al Wahda FC30 August 2026

Al Nasr

Pro League

  • W4-1Dubai United8 November 2026
  • W2-0Hatta SC17 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Al-Jazira10 September 2026
  • L1-2Ajman6 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Al Ain29 August 2026

What these results say

  • Baniyas SC did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Baniyas SC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Baniyas SC had two goals or fewer.
  • Al Nasr scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Al Nasr conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Al Nasr.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

United Arab Emirates Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Baniyas SC7025613-72
7Al Nasr7322128+411

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Baniyas SC

Chance to finish in the bottom two · 59% today

Win 44%
Draw 60%
Defeat 68%

From our Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr

  • 23 October 2026Al Nasr 0–1 Baniyas SCPresidents Cup
  • 29 January 2026Al Nasr 0–2 Baniyas SCPro League
  • 2 January 2026Baniyas SC 1–2 Al NasrPro League
  • 25 October 2025Al Nasr 0–2 Baniyas SCPresidents Cup
  • 9 February 2025Baniyas SC 0–0 Al NasrPro League
  • 29 August 2024Al Nasr 4–1 Baniyas SCPro League

Leading scorers: Baniyas SC and Al Nasr

Baniyas SC

No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

Al Nasr

GoalsAssists

  • R. Mierez21
  • K. Agudelo20

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Baniyas SC a 0% chance of the title and Al Nasr 0.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Baniyas SC v Al Nasr has moved

First published on 7 Nov at 28% / 28% / 44% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 26% / 27% / 47%: the biggest move is Al Nasr's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Baniyas SC win26%▼ −2
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Al Nasr win47%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Baniyas SC Al Nasr
0.47 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.64
1.68 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.36
1.07 Model expected goals (this match) 1.63

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Al Nasr the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Baniyas SC against 1.63 for Al Nasr. Baniyas SC's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.36 for Al Nasr.

Baniyas SC carry a model rating of 6.22 against 6.48 for Al Nasr.

How the model reaches 47% for Al Nasr to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Al Nasr to win. Then home advantage takes away 3 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Baniyas SC's ratings add 7 points and Al Nasr's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 47%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage34%−3
  3. Both sides at this match's level33%−1
  4. Baniyas SC's ratings40%+7
  5. Al Nasr's ratings47%+7

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Baniyas SCAl Nasr
7Matches7
0W 2D 5LRecord3W 2D 2L
6 0.9 per gameGoals scored12 1.7 per game
13 1.9 per gameGoals conceded8 1.1 per game
1 of 7Clean sheets2 of 7
3 of 7Failed to score0 of 7
–Penalties scored2 of 2
12 1.7 per gameYellow cards14 2.0 per game
2Red cards0
4-2-3-1 4×Usual shape4-1-4-1 2×

Baniyas SC at home · Al Nasr away

4Played2
0W 0D 4LRecord0W 1D 1L
4–10Goals for – against2–3
0 of 4Clean sheets0 of 2

League matches only, Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Pro League matches this season: Baniyas SC 7, Al Nasr 7.

Baniyas SC scored 102102
Al Nasr conceded 310130
Al Nasr scored 022421
Baniyas SC conceded 211224

Al Nasr score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Baniyas SC have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Baniyas SC

  • at Al-Dhafra5 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 35%
  • vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai12 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 19%
  • at Al-Ittihad Kalba23 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 31%
  • at Al-Jazira30 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 16%
  • vs Sharjah FC3 Jan · Pro Leaguewin 28%

Al Nasr

  • vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai4 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 30%
  • at Al-Dhafra13 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 50%
  • vs Khorfakkan24 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 53%
  • at Sharjah FC29 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 36%
  • at Al-Wasl FC2 Jan · Pro Leaguewin 28%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.