Al Ain
vs
Al-Dhafra
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al Ain 2–0 Al-Dhafra
The model makes it 67% Al Ain, 20% draw, 13% Al-Dhafra — fair odds of 1.49, 5.00 and 7.69.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Al Ain 2.48, Al-Dhafra 0.84.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 60% of the time, over 1,919 settled matches.
One-sided: Al Ain are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 5 November 2026. Al Ain's rating is built from 32 UAE Pro League matches and Al-Dhafra's from 32, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 406 matches.
Key facts
- Al Ain are 4th on 13 points from 6 games; Al-Dhafra are 10th on 6 points from 6 games — Pro League.
- Al Ain have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
- Al-Dhafra have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 5-1 win at home to Dubai United.
- Last 6 meetings: Al Ain 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 10 May 2026, ended Al Ain 5–0 Al-Dhafra.
More UAE Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al Ain vs Al-Dhafra
Has the model earned this number?
Al Ain at 67%: of 457 settled 65–100% forecasts, 67.6% came in (average 73.0%). Read it as optimistic. The full record.
Form going into Al Ain vs Al-Dhafra
Al Ain
Pro League
- L0-2away to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai17 October 2026
- D2-2Al-Wasl FC10 September 2026
- W2-0away to Al-Ittihad Kalba4 September 2026
- W2-1Al Nasr29 August 2026
- W2-0Khorfakkan22 August 2026
Al-Dhafra
Pro League
- W5-1Dubai United16 October 2026
- W2-1away to Hatta SC11 September 2026
- L0-1Al Wahda FC6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Khorfakkan29 August 2026
- L0-2away to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai22 August 2026
What these results say
- Al Ain scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al-Dhafra conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
United Arab Emirates Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Al Ain | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 13 |
| 10 | Al-Dhafra | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al Ain vs Al-Dhafra
- 10 May 2026Al Ain 5–0 Al-DhafraPro League
- 8 January 2026Al-Dhafra 1–2 Al AinPro League
- 5 February 2023Al-Dhafra 1–4 Al AinPro League
- 10 September 2022Al Ain 7–0 Al-DhafraPro League
- 7 May 2022Al-Dhafra 0–1 Al AinPro League
- 2 November 2021Al Ain 1–0 Al-DhafraPro League
Leading scorers: Al Ain and Al-Dhafra
Al Ain
GoalsAssists
- Abdoul Karim Traoré20
Al-Dhafra
GoalsAssists
- S. Kaba21
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Al Ain a 26.4% chance of the title and Al-Dhafra 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al Ain the highest probability at 67%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.48 expected goals for Al Ain against 0.84 for Al-Dhafra. Al Ain's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1.76 for Al-Dhafra.
How the model reaches 67% for Al Ain to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Al Ain to win. Then home advantage adds 3 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Al Ain's ratings add 14 points and Al-Dhafra's ratings add 14 points, which lands on the published 67%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage40%+3
- Both sides at this match's level39%−1
- Al Ain's ratings53%+14
- Al-Dhafra's ratings67%+14
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Al Ain at home · Al-Dhafra away
League matches only, Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Al Ain 6, Al-Dhafra 6.
Al-Dhafra score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Al Ain have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Al Ain
- vs Esteghlal FC23 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 47%
- at Al-Jazira3 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 40%
- at Al-Hilal7 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 14%
Al-Dhafra
- vs Baniyas SC5 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 39%
- vs Al Nasr13 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 29%
- at Al-Jazira25 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 17%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.