Khorfakkan
vs
Al-Jazira
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Khorfakkan 1–2 Al-Jazira
The model makes it 21% Khorfakkan, 23% draw, 56% Al-Jazira — fair odds of 4.76, 4.35 and 1.79.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (10%).
Expected goals: Khorfakkan 1.18, Al-Jazira 2.24.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Al-Jazira are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Khorfakkan's rating is built from 33 UAE Pro League matches and Al-Jazira's from 33, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 413 matches.
Key facts
- Khorfakkan are 10th on 7 points from 7 games; Al-Jazira are top on 17 points from 7 games — Pro League.
- Khorfakkan have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Hatta SC.
- Al-Jazira are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to Al-Wasl FC.
- Last 6 meetings: Al-Jazira 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 2 October 2026, ended Khorfakkan 0–2 Al-Jazira.
More UAE Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Khorfakkan vs Al-Jazira
Has the model earned this number?
Al-Jazira at 56%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Khorfakkan vs Al-Jazira
Khorfakkan
Pro League
- W2-1away to Hatta SC7 November 2026
- L2-3Al Wahda FC18 October 2026
- D0-0Baniyas SC11 September 2026
- L2-5away to Al-Wasl FC4 September 2026
- W2-0Al-Dhafra29 August 2026
Al-Jazira
Pro League
- W2-1Al-Wasl FC8 November 2026
- D2-2away to Al-Ittihad Kalba18 October 2026
- D1-1Al Nasr10 September 2026
- W3-1away to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai5 September 2026
- W3-0Ajman29 August 2026
What these results say
- Khorfakkan scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al-Jazira went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Al-Jazira scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al-Jazira conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
United Arab Emirates Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Khorfakkan | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 7 |
| 1 | Al-Jazira | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Khorfakkan
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 10% today
Al-Jazira
Chance to finish in the top two · 56% today
From our Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Khorfakkan vs Al-Jazira
- 2 October 2026Khorfakkan 0–2 Al-JaziraLeague Cup
- 16 March 2026Al-Jazira 3–1 KhorfakkanPro League
- 17 August 2025Khorfakkan 3–2 Al-JaziraPro League
- 28 March 2025Khorfakkan 1–0 Al-JaziraPro League
- 26 October 2024Al-Jazira 4–2 KhorfakkanPro League
- 10 May 2024Al-Jazira 3–3 KhorfakkanPro League
Leading scorers: Khorfakkan and Al-Jazira
Khorfakkan
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Al-Jazira
GoalsAssists
- Malcom31
- Bruno21
- Vinicius Mello20
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Khorfakkan a 0% chance of the title and Al-Jazira 34.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Jazira the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Khorfakkan against 2.24 for Al-Jazira. Khorfakkan's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.21 for Al-Jazira.
How the model reaches 56% for Al-Jazira to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Al-Jazira to win. Then home advantage takes away 3 points, Khorfakkan's ratings add 11 points and Al-Jazira's ratings add 11 points, which lands on the published 56%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage34%−3
- Khorfakkan's ratings45%+11
- Al-Jazira's ratings56%+11
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Khorfakkan at home · Al-Jazira away
League matches only, Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Khorfakkan 7, Al-Jazira 7.
Khorfakkan score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Al-Jazira have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Khorfakkan
- at Sharjah FC5 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 25%
- vs Ajman13 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 37%
- at Al Nasr24 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 23%
- at Dubai United29 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 38%
- vs Al-Ittihad Kalba3 Jan · Pro Leaguewin 39%
Al-Jazira
- vs Al Ain3 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 34%
- at Dubai United13 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 62%
- vs Al-Dhafra25 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 65%
- vs Baniyas SC30 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 62%
- at Al Wahda FC3 Jan · Pro Leaguewin 41%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.