Santos Laguna
vs
Necaxa
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Santos Laguna 2–1 Necaxa
The model makes it 55% Santos Laguna, 23% draw, 22% Necaxa — fair odds of 1.82, 4.35 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Santos Laguna 2.14, Necaxa 1.15.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Santos Laguna: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Santos Laguna are 8th on 16 points from 12 games; Necaxa are 17th on 9 points from 12 games — Liga MX.
- Santos Laguna are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 5-0 win at home to Club Queretaro.
- Necaxa have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Atlas.
- Last 6 meetings: Necaxa 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 11 January 2026, ended Santos Laguna 1–3 Necaxa.
More Liga MX predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Santos Laguna vs Necaxa
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Santos Laguna at 55% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Santos Laguna vs Necaxa
Santos Laguna
- W5-0Club Queretaro17 October 2026
- W2-1away to Atletico San Luis11 October 2026
- W1-0CF Pachuca27 September 2026
- W3-2away to Toluca21 September 2026
- W2-1FC Juarez14 September 2026
Necaxa
- L0-2Atlas17 October 2026
- D3-3away to CF Pachuca11 October 2026
- L2-4Club America28 September 2026
- L1-3away to Atletico San Luis19 September 2026
- L0-1Puebla12 September 2026
What these results say
- Santos Laguna won every one of these 5 matches.
- Santos Laguna scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Santos Laguna had three goals or more.
- Necaxa did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Necaxa conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Santos Laguna | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 16 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Santos Laguna vs Necaxa
- 11 January 2026Santos Laguna 1–3 NecaxaLiga MX
- 1 November 2025Necaxa 4–1 Santos LagunaLiga MX
- 8 February 2025Necaxa 3–2 Santos LagunaLiga MX
- 2 September 2024Santos Laguna 3–2 NecaxaLiga MX
- 13 April 2024Necaxa 2–0 Santos LagunaLiga MX
- 25 September 2023Santos Laguna 2–5 NecaxaLiga MX
Leading scorers: Santos Laguna and Necaxa
Santos Laguna
GoalsAssists
- Tahiel Adrián Jiménez Sánchez50
Necaxa
GoalsAssists
- J. Carranza72
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Santos Laguna carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.41 for Necaxa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.14 goals for Santos Laguna and 1.15 for Necaxa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Santos Laguna rate 0.76 in attack and 1.34 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Necaxa rate 0.67 and 1.62.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Santos Laguna a 0.1% chance of the title and Necaxa 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Santos Laguna the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Santos Laguna against 1.15 for Necaxa. Santos Laguna's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.62 for Necaxa.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Santos Laguna at home · Necaxa away
League matches only, Liga MX, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Santos LagunaNecaxa
Santos Laguna are 8th after 12 Liga MX matches (between 8th and 17th so far); Necaxa are 17th after 12 (between 1st and 17th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga MX matches this season: Santos Laguna 12, Necaxa 12.
Necaxa score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Santos Laguna have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Santos Laguna
- at Atlante FC7 Nov · Liga MXwin 35%
- vs Leon21 Nov · Liga MXwin 50%
Necaxa
- vs Club Tijuana7 Nov · Liga MXwin 35%
- at Club Queretaro23 Nov · Liga MXwin 21%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.