Santa Fe
vs
Jaguares
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Santa Fe 2–0 Jaguares
The model makes it 65% Santa Fe, 21% draw, 14% Jaguares — fair odds of 1.54, 4.76 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Santa Fe 2.29, Jaguares 0.79.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 58% of the time, over 1,389 settled matches.
One-sided: Santa Fe are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 19 October 2026. Santa Fe's rating is built from 90 Colombian Primera A matches and Jaguares's from 32, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,221 matches.
Key facts
- Santa Fe are 7th on 22 points from 13 games; Jaguares are 19th on 10 points from 13 games — Primera A.
- Santa Fe have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Llaneros.
- Jaguares have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to Millonarios.
- Last 5 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 1 draw; the most recent, 17 February 2026, ended Jaguares 3–1 Santa Fe.
More Colombian Primera A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Santa Fe vs Jaguares
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Santa Fe at 65% here. Across 4,271 settled matches (as of 19 October 2026), 339 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 64.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.8%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Santa Fe vs Jaguares
Santa Fe
- L0-1away to Llaneros18 October 2026
- W1-0away to Independiente Medellin6 October 2026
- W2-1away to Deportivo Pereira29 September 2026
- L0-1Deportivo Cali23 September 2026
- W4-1away to Alianza Valledupar19 September 2026
Jaguares
- L1-4away to Millonarios17 October 2026
- W3-2Deportes Tolima11 October 2026
- L0-2away to Águilas Doradas3 October 2026
- L1-2Alianza Valledupar27 September 2026
- L1-2away to Independiente Medellin22 September 2026
What these results say
- Santa Fe conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Jaguares conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Jaguares failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Jaguares scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Santa Fe | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 22 |
| 19 | Jaguares | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Santa Fe
Chance to finish in the top eight · 94% today
Jaguares
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 60% today
From our Primera A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Santa Fe vs Jaguares
- 17 February 2026Jaguares 3–1 Santa FePrimera A
- 15 November 2024Santa Fe 3–0 JaguaresPrimera A
- 28 April 2024Jaguares 1–0 Santa FePrimera A
- 20 July 2023Santa Fe 1–0 JaguaresPrimera A
- 27 January 2023Jaguares 2–2 Santa FePrimera A
Leading scorers: Santa Fe and Jaguares
Santa Fe
GoalsAssists
- H. Rodallega142
- N. Bustos115
Jaguares
GoalsAssists
- A. Rentería103
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Santa Fe carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.29 for Jaguares. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.29 goals for Santa Fe and 0.79 for Jaguares. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Santa Fe rate 0.77 in attack and 1.19 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Jaguares rate 0.65 and 2.05.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Santa Fe a 1.4% chance of the title and Jaguares 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,058 correct results out of 4,279 settled predictions (48%), with 431 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Santa Fe the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.29 expected goals for Santa Fe against 0.79 for Jaguares. Santa Fe's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.19 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/2.05 for Jaguares.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Santa Fe at home · Jaguares away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: Santa Fe 35, Jaguares 32.
Santa Fe score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); Jaguares have let in 13 there.
Jaguares score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Santa Fe have let in 9 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Santa Fe
- vs Bucaramanga27 Oct · Primera Awin 43%
- at Atletico Nacional30 Oct · Primera Awin 22%
- at Cucuta2 Nov · Primera Awin 40%
- vs Deportivo Pasto10 Nov · Primera Awin 59%
- at Internacional de Bogota12 Nov · Primera Awin 40%
Jaguares
- vs Llaneros26 Oct · Primera Awin 37%
- at Deportivo Pereira30 Oct · Primera Awin 31%
- at Deportivo Pasto5 Nov · Primera Awin 25%
- vs Bucaramanga8 Nov · Primera Awin 27%
- at Cucuta12 Nov · Primera Awin 24%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.