Deportivo Pasto
vs
Alianza Valledupar
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Deportivo Pasto 1–0 Alianza Valledupar
The model makes it 44% Deportivo Pasto, 30% draw, 26% Alianza Valledupar — fair odds of 2.27, 3.33 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Deportivo Pasto 1.51, Alianza Valledupar 0.90.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Deportivo Pasto are 18th on 9 points from 12 games; Alianza Valledupar are 15th on 11 points from 12 games — Primera A.
- Deportivo Pasto have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Fortaleza FC.
- Alianza Valledupar have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Deportivo Cali.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 1 April 2026, ended Alianza Valledupar 0–0 Deportivo Pasto.
All Colombian Primera A predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Deportivo Pasto at 44% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 1,425 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar
Deportivo Pasto
- D0-0Fortaleza FC4 October 2026
- L0-3away to Chico25 September 2026
- W1-0Once Caldas20 September 2026
- W1-0away to America de Cali15 September 2026
- D2-2away to Cucuta5 September 2026
Alianza Valledupar
- L1-3away to Deportivo Cali3 October 2026
- W2-1away to Jaguares27 September 2026
- L1-4Santa Fe19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Chico16 September 2026
- W1-0Junior13 September 2026
What these results say
- Alianza Valledupar scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Alianza Valledupar conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Alianza Valledupar had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Deportivo Pasto | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 9 |
| 15 | Alianza Valledupar | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar
- 1 April 2026Alianza Valledupar 0–0 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
- 5 October 2025Deportivo Pasto 3–3 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
- 15 April 2025Alianza Valledupar 1–0 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
- 30 September 2024Deportivo Pasto 1–0 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
- 15 March 2024Alianza Valledupar 1–1 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
- 22 July 2023Deportivo Pasto 1–1 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Deportivo Pasto carry a model rating of 6.33 against 6.25 for Alianza Valledupar. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.51 goals for Deportivo Pasto and 0.90 for Alianza Valledupar. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Deportivo Pasto rate 0.57 in attack and 1.62 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Alianza Valledupar rate 0.55 and 1.82.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Alianza Valledupar, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,441 correct results out of 3,061 settled predictions (47%), with 302 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Deportivo Pasto the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Deportivo Pasto against 0.90 for Alianza Valledupar. Deportivo Pasto's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.62 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.82 for Alianza Valledupar.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Deportivo Pasto at home · Alianza Valledupar away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: Deportivo Pasto 32, Alianza Valledupar 31.
Deportivo Pasto score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Alianza Valledupar have let in 10 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Deportivo Pasto
- at Deportes Tolima26 Oct · Primera Awin 22%
- at Bucaramanga31 Oct · Primera Awin 19%
- vs Jaguares5 Nov · Primera Awin 44%
- at Santa Fe10 Nov · Primera Awin 19%
Alianza Valledupar
- vs Internacional de Bogota25 Oct · Primera Awin 38%
- at Once Caldas28 Oct · Primera Awin 22%
- at Independiente Medellin1 Nov · Primera Awin 20%
- vs Llaneros9 Nov · Primera Awin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.