Deportivo Pereira
vs
Chico
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Deportivo Pereira 1–0 Chico
The model makes it 37% Deportivo Pereira, 32% draw, 31% Chico — fair odds of 2.70, 3.13 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Deportivo Pereira 1.16, Chico 0.94.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%, under 2.5: 65%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Deportivo Pereira are 19th on 8 points from 11 games; Chico are 14th on 12 points from 11 games — Primera A.
- Deportivo Pereira have not won in their last 5, most recently a 0-4 defeat away to Cucuta.
- Chico have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Deportes Tolima.
- Last 6 meetings: Deportivo Pereira 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 2 April 2026, ended Chico 1–0 Deportivo Pereira.
All Colombian Primera A predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Deportivo Pereira vs Chico
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Deportivo Pereira at 37% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 2,416 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Deportivo Pereira vs Chico
Deportivo Pereira
- L0-4away to Cucuta4 October 2026
- L1-2Santa Fe29 September 2026
- D0-0Internacional de Bogota26 September 2026
- D2-2away to Águilas Doradas18 September 2026
- L1-3Bucaramanga13 September 2026
Chico
- D0-0away to Deportes Tolima3 October 2026
- W3-0Deportivo Pasto25 September 2026
- L0-3away to Millonarios19 September 2026
- L1-2Alianza Valledupar16 September 2026
- W2-1Independiente Medellin12 September 2026
What these results say
- Deportivo Pereira did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Deportivo Pereira conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Deportivo Pereira had three goals or more.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Chico had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Deportivo Pereira | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 8 |
| 14 | Chico | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Deportivo Pereira vs Chico
- 2 April 2026Chico 1–0 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
- 22 September 2025Chico 1–1 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
- 6 April 2025Deportivo Pereira 1–1 ChicoPrimera A
- 7 August 2024Deportivo Pereira 1–0 ChicoPrimera A
- 5 February 2024Chico 1–2 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
- 5 August 2023Deportivo Pereira 1–1 ChicoPrimera A
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Deportivo Pereira carry a model rating of 6.17 against 6.24 for Chico. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.16 goals for Deportivo Pereira and 0.94 for Chico. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Deportivo Pereira rate 0.46 in attack and 1.81 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Chico rate 0.51 and 1.73.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Chico, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,441 correct results out of 3,061 settled predictions (47%), with 302 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Deportivo Pereira the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Deportivo Pereira against 0.94 for Chico. Deportivo Pereira's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.81 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.73 for Chico.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Deportivo Pereira at home · Chico away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: Deportivo Pereira 29, Chico 29.
Deportivo Pereira score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Chico have let in 3 there.
Chico score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Deportivo Pereira have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Deportivo Pereira
- at Once Caldas25 Oct · Primera Awin 19%
- vs Jaguares30 Oct · Primera Awin 37%
- vs Deportes Tolima3 Nov · Primera Awin 27%
Chico
- vs Bucaramanga23 Oct · Primera Awin 27%
- vs Junior28 Oct · Primera Awin 30%
- at Deportivo Cali2 Nov · Primera Awin 17%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.