Atlas
vs
Club America
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Atlas 1–2 Club America
The model makes it 34% Atlas, 27% draw, 39% Club America — fair odds of 2.94, 3.70 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Atlas 1.44, Club America 1.56.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Low.
Edge to Club America: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Atlas are 6th on 18 points from 11 games; Club America are top on 21 points from 10 games — Liga MX.
- Atlas are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Guadalajara Chivas.
- Club America are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Monterrey.
- Last 6 meetings: Club America 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 26 April 2026, ended Club America 0–1 Atlas.
More Liga MX predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Atlas vs Club America
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Club America at 39% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Atlas vs Club America
Atlas
- D1-1Guadalajara Chivas11 October 2026
- W3-2away to Club Tijuana26 September 2026
- D1-1Pumas UNAM19 September 2026
- L2-5away to Toluca12 September 2026
- D1-1Atlante FC6 September 2026
Club America
- D1-1Monterrey11 October 2026
- W4-2away to Necaxa28 September 2026
- D2-2Guadalajara Chivas20 September 2026
- L3-4away to Cruz Azul13 September 2026
- W2-0Puebla30 August 2026
What these results say
- Atlas scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Atlas conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Atlas.
- Club America scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Club America conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Club America.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Atlas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 18 |
| 1 | Club America | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 11 | +11 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Atlas
Chance to finish in the top four · 23% today
Club America
Chance to finish top of the Apertura · 35% today
From our Liga MX season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Atlas vs Club America
Atlas and Club America have met 6 times in the records we hold, Club America has won 5 of them to Atlas's 1.
The record
Atlas won the last one 1–0 on 26 Apr 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlas | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 17 |
| Club America | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 6 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 23 goals, an average of 3.83 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 26 Apr 2026
Liga MXClub America 0–1 Atlas - 25 Aug 2025
Liga MXAtlas 2–4 Club America - 16 Mar 2025
Liga MXAtlas 1–3 Club America - 18 Sep 2024
Liga MXClub America 3–0 Atlas - 10 Aug 2024
Leagues CupClub America 2–1 Atlas - 3 Mar 2024
Liga MXAtlas 1–5 Club America
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Atlas | 0.71 | 1.32 |
| Club America | 0.92 | 1.17 |
Leading scorers: Atlas and Club America
Atlas
GoalsAssists
- Luís Esteves41
Club America
GoalsAssists
- H. Martín62
- M. Borja40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Atlas carry a model rating of 6.54 against 6.73 for Club America. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.44 goals for Atlas and 1.56 for Club America. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atlas rate 0.71 in attack and 1.32 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Club America rate 0.92 and 1.17.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Atlas a 1.7% chance of the title and Club America 34.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,771 correct results out of 3,709 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Club America the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Atlas against 1.56 for Club America. Atlas's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/1.17 for Club America.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Atlas at home · Club America away
League matches only, Liga MX, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
AtlasClub America
Atlas are 6th after 11 Liga MX matches (between 2nd and 7th so far); Club America are 1st after 10 (between 1st and 8th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga MX matches this season: Atlas 11, Club America 10.
Atlas score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Club America have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Atlas
- vs Puebla25 Oct · Liga MXwin 48%
- at Atletico San Luis31 Oct · Liga MXwin 31%
- vs CF Pachuca7 Nov · Liga MXwin 37%
- at FC Juarez21 Nov · Liga MXwin 39%
Club America
- vs CF Pachuca25 Oct · Liga MXwin 48%
- vs Club Tijuana29 Oct · Liga MXwin 52%
- vs Toluca1 Nov · Liga MXwin 45%
- at Pumas UNAM8 Nov · Liga MXwin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.