Cucuta
vs
Santa Fe
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Cucuta 0–1 Santa Fe
The model makes it 31% Cucuta, 29% draw, 40% Santa Fe — fair odds of 3.23, 3.45 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Cucuta 1.14, Santa Fe 1.38.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 1,986 settled matches.
Edge to Santa Fe: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 19 October 2026. Cucuta's rating is built from 32 Colombian Primera A matches and Santa Fe's from 90, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,221 matches.
Key facts
- Cucuta are 11th on 18 points from 13 games; Santa Fe are 7th on 22 points from 13 games — Primera A.
- Cucuta are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Chico.
- Santa Fe have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Llaneros.
- Last 4 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 19 April 2026, ended Santa Fe 5–0 Cucuta.
More Colombian Primera A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Cucuta vs Santa Fe
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Santa Fe at 40% here. Across 4,271 settled matches (as of 19 October 2026), 1,987 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Cucuta vs Santa Fe
Cucuta
- W1-0away to Chico11 October 2026
- W4-0Deportivo Pereira4 October 2026
- W2-1Llaneros26 September 2026
- L0-3away to Deportivo Cali19 September 2026
- L1-2Millonarios14 September 2026
Santa Fe
- L0-1away to Llaneros18 October 2026
- W1-0away to Independiente Medellin6 October 2026
- W2-1away to Deportivo Pereira29 September 2026
- L0-1Deportivo Cali23 September 2026
- W4-1away to Alianza Valledupar19 September 2026
What these results say
- Cucuta scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Cucuta had three goals or more.
- Santa Fe conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Cucuta | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 19 | -3 | 18 |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Cucuta vs Santa Fe
- 19 April 2026Santa Fe 5–0 CucutaPrimera A
- 2 October 2020Cucuta 2–3 Santa FePrimera A
- 20 July 2019Cucuta 1–0 Santa FePrimera A
- 30 January 2019Santa Fe 1–2 CucutaPrimera A
Leading scorers: Cucuta and Santa Fe
Cucuta
GoalsAssists
- J. Peralta92
Santa Fe
GoalsAssists
- H. Rodallega142
- N. Bustos115
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Cucuta carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.63 for Santa Fe. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.14 goals for Cucuta and 1.38 for Santa Fe. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cucuta rate 0.66 in attack and 1.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Santa Fe rate 0.77 and 1.19.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Cucuta a 0% chance of the title and Santa Fe 1.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,058 correct results out of 4,279 settled predictions (48%), with 431 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Santa Fe the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Cucuta against 1.38 for Santa Fe. Cucuta's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.19 for Santa Fe.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Cucuta at home · Santa Fe away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: Cucuta 32, Santa Fe 35.
Cucuta score most often in the 31–45 minute window (10 goals); Santa Fe have let in 2 there.
Santa Fe score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); Cucuta have let in 15 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Cucuta
- at Junior8 Nov · Primera Awin 20%
- vs Jaguares12 Nov · Primera Awin 51%
Santa Fe
- vs Deportivo Pasto10 Nov · Primera Awin 59%
- at Internacional de Bogota12 Nov · Primera Awin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.