San Marino vs Finland UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: San Marino 0-7 Finland.
Before kick-off the model made it 22% San Marino, 28% draw, 50% Finland — fair odds of 4.55, 3.57 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Nations League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Finland at 50% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — San Marino vs Finland
Line-ups
- 1E. ColomboG
- 4F. FabbriD
- 5M. CevoliD
- 15M. PasoliniD
- 12A. TosiD
- 8L. CapicchioniM
- 16C. MeloniM
- 17A. GolinucciM
- 10S. ZannoniM
- 11N. GiacopettiF
- 9N. NanniF
- 13M. ZavoliG
- 6D. RossiD
- 19S. PancottiF
- 22M. MularoniM
- 2G. BenvenutiD
- 23M. De AngelisG
- 21L. LazzariM
- 7G. CapicchioniF
- 14Fausto Marino Salicioni OrtizF
- 12V. SinisaloG
- 18T. KeskinenD
- 21V. KoskiD
- 15S. MiettinenD
- 13J. LähteenmäkiD
- 14K. KairinenM
- 11A. MarhievM
- 10L. WaltaM
- 22A. SvanbäckF
- 20J. PohjanpaloF
- 19B. KällmanF
- 9S. VäänänenM
- 2L. VäisänenD
- 3A. StåhlD
- 4T. MiettinenD
- 17R. MahutaD
- 8R. LodM
- 6G. KamaraM
- 5O. JukkolaM
- 1L. HrádeckýG
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | San Marino | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 16 | -15 | 0 |
| 3 | Finland | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: San Marino vs Finland
- 20 November 2023San Marino 1–2 FinlandEuro Championship - Qualification
- 19 June 2023Finland 6–0 San MarinoEuro Championship - Qualification
Leading scorers: San Marino and Finland
San Marino
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.
Finland
GoalsAssists
- L. Walta41
- J. Pohjanpalo30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Finland won 7–0 at San Marino. The model had made a win for Finland its most likely outcome, at 50%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Joel Pohjanpalo 5' for Finland, adrian svanback 14' for Finland, Benjamin Källman 33' for Finland, Leo Walta 50' for Finland, Leo Walta 55' for Finland, Joel Pohjanpalo 79' for Finland, Joel Pohjanpalo (penalty) 88' for Finland. Sent off: Alessandro Golinucci (San Marino) 51'.