Iceland vs Estonia UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Iceland 1-1 Estonia.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Iceland, 30% draw, 37% Estonia — fair odds of 3.03, 3.33 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Nations League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Estonia at 37% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Iceland vs Estonia
Line-ups
- 12H. ValdimarssonG
- 4V. PálssonD
- 16S. ÞórðarsonD
- 3D. GrétarssonD
- 19M. EllertssonD
- 20J. ÞorsteinssonM
- 7H. HaraldssonM
- 8Í. Bergmann JóhannessonM
- 11A. GuðmundssonM
- 22A. GuðjohnsenF
- 9O. ÓskarssonF
- 18M. AndersonM
- 14B. WillumssonF
- 6A. BaldurssonM
- 13A. EinarssonG
- 15K. IngasonF
- 23H. MagnússonD
- 17A. GunnarssonM
- 1R. RúnarssonG
- 21A. SigurðssonM
- 1K. HeinG
- 6R. PeetsonD
- 3M. PaskotšiD
- 2M. KuuskD
- 18K. MetsD
- 19M. Schjønning-LarsenD
- 10K. PalumetsM
- 20M. PoomM
- 4M. KäitM
- 11M. AinsaluF
- 9Karel MustmaaF
- 21M. MännilaanF
- 17M. MillerM
- 7R. SaarmaM
- 13J. SalisteD
- 15M. SkvortsovM
- 8M. SoometsM
- 5E. TõugjasD
- 22K. VallnerG
- 16A. TammF
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iceland | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 8 |
| 2 | Estonia | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Iceland vs Estonia
- 8 January 2023Iceland 1–1 EstoniaFriendlies
Leading scorers: Iceland and Estonia
Iceland
GoalsAssists
- O. Óskarsson32
Estonia
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Iceland and Estonia drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Estonia at 37% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Andri Guðjohnsen 45' for Iceland, Maksim Paskotsi 64' for Estonia.