26 September 2026, 16:00 UTC

Faroe Islands vs Kazakhstan UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Tórsvøllur
Referee: Ishmael Barbara
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Faroe Islands 1-1 Kazakhstan.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Faroe Islands, 32% draw, 33% Kazakhstan — fair odds of 2.86, 3.13 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Faroe Islands at 35% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Faroe Islands3%Draw94%Kazakhstan3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Áki Samuelsenassist: Andrias Edmundsson
14'
26'
⚽Temirlan Erlanovassist: Bauyrzhan Islamkhan
49'
Galymzhan Kenzhebek
62'
🔁Zhasulan Amirout: Elkhan Astanov
62'
🔁Galymzhan Kenzhebekout: stanislav basmanov
🔁Petur Knudsenout: Adrian Justinussen
65'
73'
🔁Bauyrzhan Islamkhanout: Ramazan Orazov
🔁Géza Dávid Turiout: Mattias Hellisdal
80'
🔁Áki Samuelsenout: Poul Kallsberg
80'
81'
🔁Artur Shushenachevout: Ismail Bekbolat
90+1'
Islambek Kuat

Match stats — Faroe Islands vs Kazakhstan

42%Possession58%
14Shots10
5On target2
7Corners5

Line-ups

Faroe Islands 3-4-3
  • 1M. LamhaugeG
  • 15O. FærøD
  • 16G. VatnhamarD
  • 5A. EdmundssonD
  • 2J. DanielsenM
  • 7J. BjartalíðM
  • 21G. TuriM
  • 13M. AgnarssonM
  • 10Á. SamuelsenF
  • 11P. KnudsenF
  • 20H. SørensenF
Substitutes
  • 4S. ChukwudiD
  • 19J. BenjaminsenD
  • 18Á. DamM
  • 3V. í DavidsenD
  • 22M. HellisdalM
  • 17A. JustinussenF
  • 14P. KallsbergF
  • 9J. NielsenF
  • 12A. PetersenG
Coach: E. Klakstein
Kazakhstan 4-3-3
  • 1S. PokatilovG
  • 13A. MrynskiyD
  • 23T. ErlanovD
  • 3N. AlipD
  • 11Y. VorogovskiyD
  • 18D. KaramanM
  • 5I. KuatM
  • 9B. IslamkhanM
  • 8Z. AmirF
  • 10A. ShushenachevF
  • 7G. KenzhebekF
Substitutes
  • 21E. AstanovM
  • 14N. ZhagorovM
  • 16A. ZarutskiyG
  • 15E. TapalovD
  • 6A. ShirobokovD
  • 20R. OrazovM
  • 2S. MaliyD
  • 19R. KarimovF
  • 22I. BekbolatF
Coach: J. van 't Schip

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Faroe Islands40405504
4Kazakhstan402257-22

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Faroe Islands vs Kazakhstan

  • 18 November 2025Faroe Islands 1–0 KazakhstanFriendlies

The result against the call

Faroe Islands and Kazakhstan drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Faroe Islands at 35% and given a draw 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Áki Samuelsen 14' for Faroe Islands, Temirlan Erlanov 26' for Kazakhstan.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.