26 September 2026, 23:30 UTC

Charlotte vs Chicago Fire Major League Soccer prediction & result

Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte
Referee: Christopher Penso
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Charlotte 0-1 Chicago Fire.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Charlotte, 26% draw, 29% Chicago Fire — fair odds of 2.22, 3.85 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Charlotte at 45% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Charlotte0%Draw6%Chicago Fire94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

23'
Sergio Oregel
Djibril Diani
34'
Allan Saint-Maximin
38'
🔁Archie Goodwinout: Tyger Smalls
49'
58'
⚽Johan Arath Gomezassist: Jack Elliott
•Tyger Smalls
61'
🔁Djibril Dianiout: David Schnegg
70'
🔁Luca De La Torreout: Brandt Bronico
70'
Pep Biel
74'
75'
🔁Leonardo Barrosoout: Andrew Gutman
75'
🔁Sergio Oregelout: Mauricio Pineda
80'
🔁Jonathan Bambaout: David Poreba
80'
🔁Mbekezeli Mbokaziout: Sam Rogers
81'
David Poreba
🔁Will Clearyout: Nathan Byrne
81'
🔁Harry Toffoloout: Nathan Richmond
81'
Ashley Westwood
82'
Tim Ream
90+8'
Tim Ream
90+8'

Match stats — Charlotte vs Chicago Fire

41%Possession59%
11Shots18
2On target8
4Corners6

Line-ups

Charlotte 4-3-3
  • 1K. KahlinaG
  • 35Will ClearyD
  • 22H. KesslerD
  • 3T. ReamD
  • 15H. ToffoloD
  • 17L. de la TorreM
  • 8A. WestwoodM
  • 28D. DianiM
  • 16Pep BielF
  • 7A. GoodwinF
  • 10A. Saint-MaximinF
Substitutes
  • 13B. BronicoM
  • 14N. ByrneD
  • 23D. SchneggD
  • 44M. AgyemangD
  • 21T. MillerG
  • 25Tyger SmallsF
  • 4A. PrivettD
  • 20B. CoulibalyM
  • 71N. RichmondF
Coach: D. Smith
Chicago Fire 4-4-2
  • 44J. CohenG
  • 24J. DeanD
  • 3J. ElliottD
  • 4M. MbokaziD
  • 2Leonardo BarrosoD
  • 11P. ZinckernagelM
  • 42T. D'AvillaM
  • 35S. OregelM
  • 19J. BambaM
  • 7M. Haile-SelassieF
  • 18J. GómezF
Substitutes
  • 22M. PinedaD
  • 29D. PorębaM
  • 5S. RogersD
  • 15A. GutmanD
  • 25J. GalG
  • 58W. BrodyM
  • 65O. PinedaM
  • 28D. BoltzF
Coach: G. Berhalter

Form going into Charlotte vs Chicago Fire

Charlotte

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1away to DC United19 September 2026
  • D3-3away to FC Cincinnati12 September 2026
  • W2-1away to CF Montreal9 September 2026
  • D0-0Houston Dynamo5 September 2026
  • W2-0away to Atlanta United FC29 August 2026

Chicago Fire

All competitions we cover

  • L0-3away to Nashville SC20 September 2026
  • L1-2New England Revolution13 September 2026
  • D1-1Inter Miami10 September 2026
  • D4-4away to Toronto FC5 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Seattle Sounders29 August 2026

What these results say

  • Charlotte went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Charlotte scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Chicago Fire did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Chicago Fire conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Chicago Fire scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Charlotte32148105948+1150
4Chicago Fire32157105748+952

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Charlotte vs Chicago Fire

  • 2 August 2026Chicago Fire 2–1 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
  • 29 June 2025Chicago Fire 3–2 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
  • 17 May 2025Charlotte 1–4 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
  • 2 October 2024Charlotte 4–3 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
  • 16 May 2024Chicago Fire 0–1 CharlotteMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Charlotte and Chicago Fire

Charlotte

GoalsAssists

  • I. Toklomati Giorno155

Chicago Fire

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 57 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Chicago Fire won 1–0 at Charlotte. The model had leaned towards a win for Charlotte at 45% and given a win for Chicago Fire 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Johan Arath Gomez 58' for Chicago Fire. Sent off: Tim Ream (Charlotte) 90+8'.

How the call on Charlotte v Chicago Fire has moved

First published on 12 Sep at 41% / 29% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 45% / 26% / 29%: the biggest move is Charlotte's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Charlotte win45%▲ +4
  2. Draw26%▼ −3
  3. Chicago Fire win29%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.