CF Montreal
vs
FC Cincinnati
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: CF Montreal 2–1 FC Cincinnati
The model makes it 41% CF Montreal, 28% draw, 31% FC Cincinnati — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: CF Montreal 1.70, FC Cincinnati 1.34.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are CF Montreal wins, grey are draws, red are FC Cincinnati wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts CF Montreal at 41% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati
CF Montreal
- L0-1away to Colorado Rapids13 September 2026
- L1-2Charlotte9 September 2026
- L0-2away to Philadelphia Union5 September 2026
- L1-7away to Inter Miami29 August 2026
- D2-2Los Angeles Galaxy22 August 2026
FC Cincinnati
- D3-3Charlotte12 September 2026
- L0-5away to Philadelphia Union9 September 2026
- L0-4away to Nashville SC30 August 2026
- D1-1Seattle Sounders22 August 2026
- W2-1New York City FC19 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Leading scorers: CF Montreal and FC Cincinnati
CF Montreal
- P. Owusu13 goals6 assists
FC Cincinnati
- K. Denkey13 goals2 assists
- Evander12 goals8 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
CF Montreal carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.45 for FC Cincinnati. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.70 goals for CF Montreal and 1.34 for FC Cincinnati. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
CF Montreal rate 0.58 in attack and 1.41 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Cincinnati rate 0.79 and 1.80.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives CF Montreal the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.7 expected goals for CF Montreal against 1.34 for FC Cincinnati. CF Montreal's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.8 for FC Cincinnati.