26 September 2026, 23:30 UTC

CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati Major League Soccer prediction & result

Saputo Stadium, Montreal
Referee: Ismail Elfath
Full time3 – 1

Final score: CF Montreal 3-1 FC Cincinnati.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% CF Montreal, 26% draw, 40% FC Cincinnati — fair odds of 2.94, 3.85 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FC Cincinnati at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

CF Montreal99%Draw1%FC Cincinnati0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Brayan Ceballosout: Fabian Herbers
11'
⚽Daniel Rios
25'
Matthew Longstaff
33'
Fabian Herbers
47'
58'
🔁Ayoub Jabbariout: David Douděra
64'
⚽Tom Barlowassist: Gerardo Valenzuela
71'
Roman Celentano
⚽Prince-Osei Owusu (pen)
72'
⚽Prince-Osei Owusuassist: Daniel Rios
75'
77'
🔁Bryan Ramirezout: Kristian Fletcher
77'
🔁Obinna Nwobodoout: Kyle Smith
86'
Teenage Hadebe
86'
🔁Nick Hagglundout: Alvas Powell
86'
🔁Samuel Mawuena Gidiout: Tah Anunga
🔁Prince-Osei Owusuout: Frankie Amaya
87'

Match stats — CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati

45%Possession55%
15Shots18
5On target4
4Corners6

Line-ups

CF Montreal 3-4-1-2
  • 1S. BrezaG
  • 3B. CeballosD
  • 5B. CraigD
  • 2J. NealD
  • 27D. BugajM
  • 8M. LongstaffM
  • 22V. LoturiM
  • 13L. PetrassoM
  • 10A. SánchezM
  • 14D. RíosF
  • 9P. OwusuF
Substitutes
  • 25F. AmayaM
  • 26I. LosenkoM
  • 21F. HerbersF
  • 31T. GillierG
  • 33E. GazdovG
Coach: Philippe Eullaffroy
FC Cincinnati 3-5-2
  • 18R. CelentanoG
  • 11S. GidiD
  • 4N. HagglundD
  • 15T. HadebeD
  • 17K. Mboma DemM
  • 22G. ValenzuelaM
  • 10EvanderM
  • 5O. NwobodoM
  • 29Bryan Josías Ramírez LeónM
  • 16T. BarlowF
  • 99A. JabbariF
Substitutes
  • 6J. MalatiniD
  • 2A. PowellD
  • 50Felix SamsonD
  • 24K. SmithD
  • 13E. LouroG
  • 14K. FletcherF
  • 23D. DouděraM
  • 27B. AnungaM
  • 19Stefan ChirilaM
Coach: Pat Noonan

Form going into CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati

CF Montreal

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2Columbus Crew19 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Colorado Rapids13 September 2026
  • L1-2Charlotte9 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Philadelphia Union5 September 2026
  • L1-7away to Inter Miami29 August 2026

FC Cincinnati

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2away to Houston Dynamo20 September 2026
  • D3-3Charlotte12 September 2026
  • L0-5away to Philadelphia Union9 September 2026
  • L0-4away to Nashville SC30 August 2026
  • D1-1Seattle Sounders22 August 2026

What these results say

  • CF Montreal did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • CF Montreal conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • FC Cincinnati did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • FC Cincinnati conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for FC Cincinnati had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15CF Montreal3267193666-3025
8FC Cincinnati321110116673-743

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati

  • 22 March 2026FC Cincinnati 4–3 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
  • 18 October 2025FC Cincinnati 3–0 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
  • 25 June 2025CF Montreal 1–3 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
  • 24 January 2025FC Cincinnati 1–0 CF MontrealFriendlies Clubs
  • 31 August 2024FC Cincinnati 4–1 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: CF Montreal and FC Cincinnati

CF Montreal

GoalsAssists

  • P. Owusu156

FC Cincinnati

GoalsAssists

  • K. Denkey173

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

CF Montreal beat FC Cincinnati 3–1. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Cincinnati at 40% and given a win for CF Montreal 34%. The goals: Daniel Rios 25' for CF Montreal, Tom Barlow 64' for FC Cincinnati, Prince-Osei Owusu (penalty) 72' for CF Montreal, Prince-Osei Owusu 75' for CF Montreal.

How the call on CF Montreal v FC Cincinnati has moved

First published on 12 Sep at 43% / 28% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 34% / 26% / 40%: the biggest move is FC Cincinnati's chance of winning, up 11 points.

  1. CF Montreal win34%▼ −9
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. FC Cincinnati win40%▲ +11

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.