Club Queretaro
vs
Puebla
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Club Queretaro 1–0 Puebla
The model makes it 50% Club Queretaro, 27% draw, 23% Puebla — fair odds of 2.00, 3.70 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Club Queretaro 1.63, Puebla 0.95.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,616 settled matches.
Edge to Club Queretaro: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 26 October 2026. Club Queretaro's rating is built from 47 Liga MX matches and Puebla's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 801 matches.
Key facts
- Club Queretaro are 9th on 20 points from 13 games; Puebla are 14th on 16 points from 14 games — Liga MX.
- Club Queretaro are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Cruz Azul.
- Puebla have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 3-4 defeat away to Atlas.
- Last 6 meetings: Club Queretaro 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended Puebla 1–2 Club Queretaro.
More Liga MX predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Club Queretaro vs Puebla
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Club Queretaro at 50% here. Across 4,942 settled matches (as of 26 October 2026), 1,223 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Club Queretaro vs Puebla
Club Queretaro
Liga MX
- L1-3Cruz Azul26 October 2026
- L1-2away to Atletico San Luis21 October 2026
- L0-5away to Santos Laguna17 October 2026
- W2-0Atlante FC10 October 2026
- W2-0away to Guadalajara Chivas26 September 2026
Puebla
Liga MX
- L3-4away to Atlas25 October 2026
- L1-4Monterrey22 October 2026
- D0-0away to Club Tijuana17 October 2026
- D1-1Leon10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Tigres UANL27 September 2026
What these results say
- Club Queretaro scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Puebla did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Puebla conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Club Queretaro | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 20 |
| 14 | Puebla | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Club Queretaro
Chance to finish in the top eight · 73% today
Puebla
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 13% today
From our Liga MX season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Club Queretaro vs Puebla
- 25 April 2026Puebla 1–2 Club QueretaroLiga MX
- 4 October 2025Club Queretaro 3–1 PueblaLiga MX
- 2 March 2025Club Queretaro 2–0 PueblaLiga MX
- 14 September 2024Puebla 2–1 Club QueretaroLiga MX
- 24 February 2024Puebla 0–2 Club QueretaroLiga MX
- 17 September 2023Club Queretaro 1–1 PueblaLiga MX
Leading scorers: Club Queretaro and Puebla
Club Queretaro
GoalsAssists
- S. Homenchenko52
- A. Ávila50
Puebla
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Club Queretaro carry a model rating of 6.54 against 6.41 for Puebla. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.63 goals for Club Queretaro and 0.95 for Puebla. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Club Queretaro rate 0.66 in attack and 1.24 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Puebla rate 0.59 and 1.43.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Club Queretaro a 0.5% chance of the title and Puebla 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,376 correct results out of 4,950 settled predictions (48%), with 492 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Club Queretaro the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Club Queretaro against 0.95 for Puebla. Club Queretaro's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.43 for Puebla.
How the model reaches 50% for Club Queretaro to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Club Queretaro to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, Club Queretaro's ratings take away 17 points and Puebla's ratings add 22 points, which lands on the published 50%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage45%+9
- Club Queretaro's ratings28%−17
- Puebla's ratings50%+22
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Club Queretaro at home · Puebla away
League matches only, Liga MX, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Club QueretaroPuebla
Club Queretaro are 9th after 13 Liga MX matches (between 3rd and 14th so far); Puebla are 14th after 14 (between 4th and 13th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga MX matches this season: Club Queretaro 13, Puebla 14.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Club Queretaro
- vs Monterrey14 Nov · Liga MXwin 39%
- vs Necaxa23 Nov · Liga MXwin 51%
Puebla
- vs Atletico San Luis21 Nov · Liga MXwin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.