Hvidovre
vs
Aarhus Fremad
1. Division prediction
Our model says: Hvidovre 1–0 Aarhus Fremad
The model makes it 46% Hvidovre, 30% draw, 24% Aarhus Fremad — fair odds of 2.17, 3.33 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Hvidovre 1.38, Aarhus Fremad 0.86.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,296 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 26 October 2026. Hvidovre's rating is built from 44 1. Division (Denmark) matches and Aarhus Fremad's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Hvidovre are top on 28 points from 12 games; Aarhus Fremad are 5th on 15 points from 12 games — 1. Division.
- Hvidovre are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-2 draw at home to HB Koge.
- Aarhus Fremad have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Vejle.
- Last 3 meetings: Hvidovre 2 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 19 September 2026, ended Aarhus Fremad 1–3 Hvidovre.
More 1. Division (Denmark) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Hvidovre vs Aarhus Fremad
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hvidovre at 46% here. Across 4,942 settled matches (as of 26 October 2026), 2,300 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Hvidovre vs Aarhus Fremad
Hvidovre
1. Division
- D2-2HB Koge23 October 2026
- W1-0Hillerød18 October 2026
- W2-1away to Vejle9 October 2026
- W3-1away to Aarhus Fremad19 September 2026
- D2-2Aalborg12 September 2026
Aarhus Fremad
1. Division
- D0-0away to Vejle24 October 2026
- D0-0Esbjerg16 October 2026
- L0-2away to AB Copenhagen9 October 2026
- L1-3Hvidovre19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Vendsyssel FF11 September 2026
What these results say
- Hvidovre went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Hvidovre scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Hvidovre conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aarhus Fremad did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Aarhus Fremad failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Aarhus Fremad had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hvidovre | 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 28 |
| 5 | Aarhus Fremad | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Hvidovre vs Aarhus Fremad
- 19 September 2026Aarhus Fremad 1–3 Hvidovre1. Division
- 1 November 2025Aarhus Fremad 0–0 Hvidovre1. Division
- 15 August 2025Hvidovre 2–0 Aarhus Fremad1. Division
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Hvidovre carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.29 for Aarhus Fremad. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.38 goals for Hvidovre and 0.86 for Aarhus Fremad. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hvidovre rate 0.60 in attack and 1.66 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Aarhus Fremad rate 0.43 and 1.41.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Hvidovre a 61.6% chance of the title and Aarhus Fremad 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,376 correct results out of 4,950 settled predictions (48%), with 492 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hvidovre the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Hvidovre against 0.86 for Aarhus Fremad. Hvidovre's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.66 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.43/1.41 for Aarhus Fremad.
How the model reaches 46% for Hvidovre to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Hvidovre to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Hvidovre's ratings take away 24 points and Aarhus Fremad's ratings add 26 points, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Hvidovre's ratings20%−24
- Aarhus Fremad's ratings46%+26
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Hvidovre at home · Aarhus Fremad away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: Hvidovre 12, Aarhus Fremad 12.
Hvidovre score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Aarhus Fremad have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Hvidovre
- at Vendsyssel FF21 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 43%
- vs Kolding IF27 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 53%
- at FC Fredericia6 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 25%
- vs Vejle20 Feb · 1. Divisionwin 44%
Aarhus Fremad
- vs Hobro20 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 50%
- at HB Koge28 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 32%
- vs AB Copenhagen4 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 37%
- at Esbjerg20 Feb · 1. Divisionwin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.