Avai
vs
São Bernardo
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Avai 2–1 São Bernardo
The model makes it 36% Avai, 28% draw, 36% São Bernardo — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Avai 1.38, São Bernardo 1.37.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 958 settled matches.
A tight game: Avai and São Bernardo are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Avai's rating is built from 72 Brazilian Serie B matches and São Bernardo's from 34, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Avai are 17th on 37 points from 34 games; São Bernardo are 12th on 46 points from 34 games — Serie B.
- Avai are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Athletic Club MG.
- São Bernardo are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Criciuma.
More Brazilian Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Avai vs São Bernardo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Avai at 36% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Avai vs São Bernardo
Avai
Serie B
- D0-0Athletic Club MG18 October 2026
- W1-0away to Cuiaba11 October 2026
- W2-1Londrina7 October 2026
- L0-1Ceara3 October 2026
- L0-3away to Criciuma27 September 2026
São Bernardo
Serie B
- L0-1Criciuma18 October 2026
- D2-2away to Juventude11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Sport Recife6 October 2026
- W3-1CRB2 October 2026
- D0-0away to Novorizontino25 September 2026
What these results say
- São Bernardo failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- São Bernardo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Avai | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 33 | 43 | -10 | 37 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 46 | 37 | +9 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Avai vs São Bernardo
- 17 July 2026São Bernardo 1–1 AvaiSerie B
The two sides
Avai carry a model rating of 6.27 against 6.42 for São Bernardo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.38 goals for Avai and 1.37 for São Bernardo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Avai rate 0.53 in attack and 1.70 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; São Bernardo rate 0.67 and 1.60.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour São Bernardo, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,204 correct results out of 4,575 settled predictions (48%), with 454 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Avai the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Avai against 1.37 for São Bernardo. Avai's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.6 for São Bernardo.
How the model reaches 36% for Avai to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Avai to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Avai's ratings take away 27 points and São Bernardo's ratings add 19 points, which lands on the published 36%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Avai's ratings17%−27
- São Bernardo's ratings36%+19
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Avai at home · São Bernardo away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Avai 34, São Bernardo 34.
Avai score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); São Bernardo have let in 6 there.
São Bernardo score most often in the 76–90 minute window (15 goals); Avai have let in 12 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Avai
- at America Mineiro14 Nov · Serie Bwin 37%
São Bernardo
- vs Athletic Club MG14 Nov · Serie Bwin 50%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.