Cuiaba
vs
Juventude
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Cuiaba 1–0 Juventude
The model makes it 34% Cuiaba, 32% draw, 34% Juventude — fair odds of 2.94, 3.13 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Cuiaba 1.02, Juventude 1.03.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 34%, under 2.5: 66%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 958 settled matches.
A tight game: Cuiaba and Juventude are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Cuiaba's rating is built from 72 Brazilian Serie B matches and Juventude's from 34, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Cuiaba are 11th on 47 points from 34 games; Juventude are 3rd on 61 points from 34 games — Serie B.
- Cuiaba are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Londrina.
- Juventude are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-2 draw away to Ceara.
- Last 6 meetings: Cuiaba 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 17 July 2026, ended Juventude 2–0 Cuiaba.
More Brazilian Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Cuiaba vs Juventude
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cuiaba at 34% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Cuiaba vs Juventude
Cuiaba
Serie B
- L0-1away to Londrina20 October 2026
- L0-1Avai11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Vila Nova7 October 2026
- W2-0Ponte Preta3 October 2026
- L0-3away to CRB27 September 2026
Juventude
Serie B
- D2-2away to Ceara17 October 2026
- D2-2São Bernardo11 October 2026
- W2-0away to Ponte Preta7 October 2026
- W3-0Operario-PR2 October 2026
- W1-0away to America Mineiro28 September 2026
What these results say
- Cuiaba failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cuiaba failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Cuiaba had two goals or fewer.
- Juventude went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Juventude scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Cuiaba | 34 | 11 | 14 | 9 | 32 | 27 | +5 | 47 |
| 3 | Juventude | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 41 | 23 | +18 | 61 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Juventude
Chance to finish in the top two · 52% today
From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Cuiaba vs Juventude
- 17 July 2026Juventude 2–0 CuiabaSerie B
- 23 November 2024Juventude 1–1 CuiabaSerie A
- 5 September 2024Cuiaba 0–0 JuventudeSerie A
- 13 August 2022Cuiaba 1–0 JuventudeSerie A
- 24 April 2022Juventude 0–1 CuiabaSerie A
- 11 September 2021Juventude 1–2 CuiabaSerie A
Leading scorers: Cuiaba and Juventude
Cuiaba
GoalsAssists
- Kauan63
Juventude
GoalsAssists
- Raí85
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Cuiaba carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.56 for Juventude. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.02 goals for Cuiaba and 1.03 for Juventude. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cuiaba rate 0.53 in attack and 1.32 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Juventude rate 0.65 and 1.18.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Juventude, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Cuiaba a 0% chance of the title and Juventude 25%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,204 correct results out of 4,575 settled predictions (48%), with 454 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cuiaba the highest probability at 34%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Cuiaba against 1.03 for Juventude. Cuiaba's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.18 for Juventude.
How the model reaches 34% for Cuiaba to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Cuiaba to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Cuiaba's ratings take away 22 points and Juventude's ratings add 12 points, which lands on the published 34%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Cuiaba's ratings22%−22
- Juventude's ratings34%+12
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Cuiaba at home · Juventude away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Cuiaba 34, Juventude 34.
Cuiaba score most often in the 61–75 minute window (11 goals); Juventude have let in 3 there.
Juventude score most often in the 31–45 minute window (11 goals); Cuiaba have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Cuiaba
- at Atletico Goianiense14 Nov · Serie Bwin 26%
Juventude
- vs Botafogo SP14 Nov · Serie Bwin 55%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.