Rouen
vs
Bastia
Ligue 3 prediction
Our model says: Rouen 2–0 Bastia
The model makes it 57% Rouen, 25% draw, 18% Bastia — fair odds of 1.75, 4.00 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Rouen 1.92, Bastia 0.85.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,493 settled matches.
Edge to Rouen: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Rouen's rating is built from 42 Ligue 3 matches and Bastia's from 10, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Rouen are 2nd on 20 points from 10 games; Bastia are 13th on 12 points from 10 games — Ligue 3.
- Rouen have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Gobelins.
- Bastia are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Concarneau.
More Ligue 3 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Rouen vs Bastia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rouen at 57% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Rouen vs Bastia
Rouen
Ligue 3
- L1-3away to Gobelins17 October 2026
- W2-0Bourg-en-bresse 013 October 2026
- L2-3away to Caen24 September 2026
- W1-0Aubagne19 September 2026
- W4-0away to Thionville Lusitanos12 September 2026
Bastia
Ligue 3
- D1-1away to Concarneau17 October 2026
- D1-1Orleans1 October 2026
- L0-1away to Gobelins26 September 2026
- D1-1Cannes17 September 2026
- W1-0away to Bourg-en-bresse 0112 September 2026
What these results say
- Rouen scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Bastia had two goals or fewer.
- Bastia failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bastia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Rouen | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 20 |
| 13 | Bastia | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Rouen vs Bastia
- 22 July 2023Rouen 0–2 BastiaFriendlies Clubs
The two sides
Rouen carry a model rating of 6.3 against 6.05 for Bastia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.92 goals for Rouen and 0.85 for Bastia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rouen rate 0.58 in attack and 1.73 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bastia rate 0.41 and 2.04.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Rouen a 13.8% chance of the title and Bastia 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,209 correct results out of 4,585 settled predictions (48%), with 455 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rouen the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Rouen against 0.85 for Bastia. Rouen's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.73 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.41/2.04 for Bastia.
How the model reaches 57% for Rouen to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Rouen to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Rouen's ratings take away 26 points and Bastia's ratings add 39 points, which lands on the published 57%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Rouen's ratings18%−26
- Bastia's ratings57%+39
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Rouen at home · Bastia away
League matches only, Ligue 3, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 3 matches this season: Rouen 10, Bastia 10.
Rouen score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Bastia have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Rouen
- at Fleury 9121 Nov · Ligue 3win 31%
- vs La Roche VF5 Dec · Ligue 3win 45%
- at Le Puy Foot12 Dec · Ligue 3win 32%
- vs Versailles16 Jan · Ligue 3win 48%
Bastia
- vs Villefranche21 Nov · Ligue 3win 51%
- at Fleury 915 Dec · Ligue 3win 20%
- vs Valenciennes12 Dec · Ligue 3win 43%
- at La Roche VF16 Jan · Ligue 3win 18%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.