Thionville Lusitanos
vs
Cannes
Ligue 3 prediction
Our model says: Thionville Lusitanos 0–1 Cannes
The model makes it 31% Thionville Lusitanos, 28% draw, 41% Cannes — fair odds of 3.23, 3.57 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Thionville Lusitanos 1.23, Cannes 1.48.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,126 settled matches.
Edge to Cannes: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Thionville Lusitanos's rating is built from 10 Ligue 3 matches and Cannes's from 10, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Thionville Lusitanos are 12th on 12 points from 10 games; Cannes are 8th on 15 points from 10 games — Ligue 3.
- Thionville Lusitanos have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Versailles.
- Cannes have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Villefranche.
More Ligue 3 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Thionville Lusitanos vs Cannes
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cannes at 41% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Thionville Lusitanos vs Cannes
Thionville Lusitanos
Ligue 3
- L1-2Versailles17 October 2026
- L0-1away to Le Puy Foot3 October 2026
- L1-2La Roche VF26 September 2026
- D1-1away to Fleury 9119 September 2026
- L0-4Rouen12 September 2026
Cannes
Ligue 3
- L1-2away to Villefranche17 October 2026
- W3-1Quevilly3 October 2026
- D0-0away to Orleans26 September 2026
- D1-1away to Bastia17 September 2026
- D0-0Amiens10 September 2026
What these results say
- Thionville Lusitanos did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Thionville Lusitanos conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cannes failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Thionville Lusitanos | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 12 |
| 8 | Cannes | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
The two sides
Thionville Lusitanos carry a model rating of 6.12 against 6.37 for Cannes. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.23 goals for Thionville Lusitanos and 1.48 for Cannes. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Thionville Lusitanos rate 0.55 in attack and 2.41 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cannes rate 0.51 and 1.37.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Thionville Lusitanos a 0.1% chance of the title and Cannes 12%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,204 correct results out of 4,575 settled predictions (48%), with 454 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cannes the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Thionville Lusitanos against 1.48 for Cannes. Thionville Lusitanos's attack/defence rating is 0.55/2.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.37 for Cannes.
How the model reaches 41% for Cannes to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Cannes to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Thionville Lusitanos's ratings add 43 points and Cannes's ratings take away 31 points, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Thionville Lusitanos's ratings72%+43
- Cannes's ratings41%−31
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Thionville Lusitanos at home · Cannes away
League matches only, Ligue 3, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 3 matches this season: Thionville Lusitanos 10, Cannes 10.
Thionville Lusitanos score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Cannes have let in 1 there.
Cannes score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Thionville Lusitanos have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Thionville Lusitanos
- at Orleans21 Nov · Ligue 3win 29%
- vs Quevilly5 Dec · Ligue 3win 46%
- at Villefranche12 Dec · Ligue 3win 39%
- vs Valenciennes16 Jan · Ligue 3win 49%
Cannes
- vs Aubagne21 Nov · Ligue 3win 60%
- at Caen3 Dec · Ligue 3win 35%
- vs Bourg-en-bresse 0112 Dec · Ligue 3win 66%
- at Gobelins16 Jan · Ligue 3win 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.