Le Puy Foot
vs
Caen
Ligue 3 prediction
Our model says: Le Puy Foot 2–1 Caen
The model makes it 45% Le Puy Foot, 26% draw, 29% Caen — fair odds of 2.22, 3.85 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Le Puy Foot 1.78, Caen 1.33.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Le Puy Foot are 6th on 16 points from 10 games; Caen are 4th on 18 points from 10 games — Ligue 3.
- Le Puy Foot have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Aubagne.
- Caen have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to La Roche VF.
- Last 2 meetings: level at 1 win each, 0 draws; the most recent, 13 March 2026, ended Le Puy Foot 1–0 Caen.
More Ligue 3 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Le Puy Foot vs Caen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Le Puy Foot at 45% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Le Puy Foot vs Caen
Le Puy Foot
- W1-0away to Aubagne17 October 2026
- W1-0Thionville Lusitanos3 October 2026
- L1-2away to Valenciennes26 September 2026
- W4-1Villefranche19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Quevilly12 September 2026
Caen
- W2-1La Roche VF15 October 2026
- L2-3away to Fleury 913 October 2026
- W3-2Rouen24 September 2026
- L0-2away to Concarneau19 September 2026
- W2-0Gobelins12 September 2026
What these results say
- Le Puy Foot scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Caen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Caen conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Le Puy Foot | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 16 |
| 4 | Caen | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Le Puy Foot
Chance to finish in the top four · 26% today
Caen
Chance to finish in the top four · 31% today
From our Ligue 3 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Le Puy Foot vs Caen
- 13 March 2026Le Puy Foot 1–0 CaenLigue 3
- 3 October 2025Caen 2–0 Le Puy FootLigue 3
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Le Puy Foot carry a model rating of 6.23 against 6.24 for Caen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.78 goals for Le Puy Foot and 1.33 for Caen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Le Puy Foot rate 0.52 in attack and 1.81 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Caen rate 0.61 and 2.10.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Caen, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Le Puy Foot a 5% chance of the title and Caen 6.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Le Puy Foot the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Le Puy Foot against 1.33 for Caen. Le Puy Foot's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.81 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/2.1 for Caen.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Le Puy Foot at home · Caen away
League matches only, Ligue 3, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 3 matches this season: Le Puy Foot 10, Caen 10.
Le Puy Foot score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Caen have let in 3 there.
Caen score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Le Puy Foot have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Le Puy Foot
- at Bourg-en-bresse 017 Nov · Ligue 3win 47%
- vs Gobelins21 Nov · Ligue 3win 52%
- at Concarneau5 Dec · Ligue 3win 32%
- vs Rouen12 Dec · Ligue 3win 38%
- at Fleury 9116 Jan · Ligue 3win 27%
Caen
- vs Versailles7 Nov · Ligue 3win 45%
- at Amiens19 Nov · Ligue 3win 28%
- vs Cannes3 Dec · Ligue 3win 37%
- at Orleans10 Dec · Ligue 3win 35%
- vs Quevilly16 Jan · Ligue 3win 53%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.