Gobelins
vs
La Roche VF
Ligue 3 prediction
Our model says: Gobelins 0–1 La Roche VF
The model makes it 30% Gobelins, 29% draw, 41% La Roche VF — fair odds of 3.33, 3.45 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Gobelins 1.11, La Roche VF 1.38.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,131 settled matches.
Edge to La Roche VF: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Gobelins's rating is built from 42 Ligue 3 matches and La Roche VF's from 10, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Gobelins are 10th on 15 points from 10 games; La Roche VF are top on 21 points from 10 games — Ligue 3.
- Gobelins have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Rouen.
- La Roche VF have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Caen.
- Last 2 meetings: level at 1 win each, 0 draws; the most recent, 9 March 2024, ended Gobelins 2–0 La Roche VF.
More Ligue 3 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Gobelins vs La Roche VF
Has the model earned this number?
It puts La Roche VF at 41% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Gobelins vs La Roche VF
Gobelins
Ligue 3
- W3-1Rouen17 October 2026
- L1-2away to Concarneau3 October 2026
- W1-0Bastia26 September 2026
- D1-1Bourg-en-bresse 0119 September 2026
- L0-2away to Caen12 September 2026
La Roche VF
Ligue 3
- L1-2away to Caen15 October 2026
- W3-1Aubagne3 October 2026
- W2-1away to Thionville Lusitanos26 September 2026
- W3-2Valenciennes19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Villefranche12 September 2026
What these results say
- Gobelins scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gobelins conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- La Roche VF scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- La Roche VF conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for La Roche VF had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Gobelins | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 15 |
| 1 | La Roche VF | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Gobelins vs La Roche VF
- 9 March 2024Gobelins 2–0 La Roche VFNational 2 - Group B
- 6 October 2023La Roche VF 1–0 GobelinsNational 2 - Group B
The two sides
Gobelins carry a model rating of 6.05 against 6.3 for La Roche VF. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.11 goals for Gobelins and 1.38 for La Roche VF. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gobelins rate 0.38 in attack and 1.94 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; La Roche VF rate 0.59 and 1.79.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Gobelins a 0.1% chance of the title and La Roche VF 20%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,209 correct results out of 4,585 settled predictions (48%), with 455 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives La Roche VF the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Gobelins against 1.38 for La Roche VF. Gobelins's attack/defence rating is 0.38/1.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.79 for La Roche VF.
How the model reaches 41% for La Roche VF to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for La Roche VF to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Gobelins's ratings add 41 points and La Roche VF's ratings take away 29 points, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Gobelins's ratings70%+41
- La Roche VF's ratings41%−29
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Gobelins at home · La Roche VF away
League matches only, Ligue 3, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 3 matches this season: Gobelins 10, La Roche VF 10.
Gobelins score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); La Roche VF have let in 1 there.
La Roche VF score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); Gobelins have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Gobelins
- at Le Puy Foot21 Nov · Ligue 3win 21%
- vs Versailles5 Dec · Ligue 3win 32%
- at Amiens12 Dec · Ligue 3win 14%
- vs Cannes16 Jan · Ligue 3win 27%
La Roche VF
- vs Concarneau21 Nov · Ligue 3win 52%
- at Rouen5 Dec · Ligue 3win 28%
- vs Fleury 9112 Dec · Ligue 3win 48%
- vs Bastia16 Jan · Ligue 3win 57%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.