Bastia
vs
Quevilly
Ligue 3 prediction
Our model says: Bastia 1–0 Quevilly
The model makes it 55% Bastia, 25% draw, 20% Quevilly — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Bastia 1.90, Quevilly 0.94.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Bastia: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Bastia are 13th on 12 points from 10 games; Quevilly are 11th on 13 points from 10 games — Ligue 3.
- Bastia are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Concarneau.
- Quevilly have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Orleans.
- Last 6 meetings: Bastia 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 10 February 2024, ended Quevilly 0–1 Bastia.
More Ligue 3 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bastia vs Quevilly
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bastia at 55% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Bastia vs Quevilly
Bastia
- D1-1away to Concarneau17 October 2026
- D1-1Orleans1 October 2026
- L0-1away to Gobelins26 September 2026
- D1-1Cannes17 September 2026
- W1-0away to Bourg-en-bresse 0112 September 2026
Quevilly
- W3-2Orleans17 October 2026
- L1-3away to Cannes3 October 2026
- D1-1Amiens26 September 2026
- D0-0away to Versailles19 September 2026
- W2-1Le Puy Foot12 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Bastia had two goals or fewer.
- Bastia failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bastia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Quevilly scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Quevilly conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Quevilly.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Bastia | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 12 |
| 11 | Quevilly | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Bastia
Chance to finish in the top four · 25% today
Quevilly
Chance to finish in the top four · 9% today
From our Ligue 3 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Bastia vs Quevilly
- 10 February 2024Quevilly 0–1 BastiaLigue 2
- 16 December 2023Bastia 0–0 QuevillyLigue 2
- 11 February 2023Bastia 0–1 QuevillyLigue 2
- 10 January 2023Quevilly 1–1 BastiaLigue 2
- 8 January 2022Bastia 3–0 QuevillyLigue 2
- 18 August 2021Quevilly 1–2 BastiaLigue 2
The two sides
Bastia carry a model rating of 6.32 against 6.12 for Quevilly. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.90 goals for Bastia and 0.94 for Quevilly. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bastia rate 0.54 in attack and 1.56 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Quevilly rate 0.50 and 2.16.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Quevilly, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bastia a 4.2% chance of the title and Quevilly 0.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bastia the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Bastia against 0.94 for Quevilly. Bastia's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/2.16 for Quevilly.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Bastia at home · Quevilly away
League matches only, Ligue 3, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 3 matches this season: Bastia 10, Quevilly 10.
Quevilly score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Bastia have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Bastia
- at Rouen7 Nov · Ligue 3win 28%
- vs Villefranche21 Nov · Ligue 3win 66%
- at Fleury 915 Dec · Ligue 3win 32%
- vs Valenciennes12 Dec · Ligue 3win 57%
- at La Roche VF16 Jan · Ligue 3win 30%
Quevilly
- at Villefranche7 Nov · Ligue 3win 39%
- vs Valenciennes21 Nov · Ligue 3win 48%
- at Thionville Lusitanos5 Dec · Ligue 3win 29%
- vs Aubagne12 Dec · Ligue 3win 51%
- at Caen16 Jan · Ligue 3win 24%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.