Villefranche
vs
Quevilly
Ligue 3 prediction
Our model says: Villefranche 1–2 Quevilly
The model makes it 36% Villefranche, 25% draw, 39% Quevilly — fair odds of 2.78, 4.00 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Villefranche 1.62, Quevilly 1.69.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 958 settled matches.
A tight game: Villefranche and Quevilly are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Villefranche's rating is built from 42 Ligue 3 matches and Quevilly's from 42, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Villefranche are 17th on 7 points from 10 games; Quevilly are 11th on 13 points from 10 games — Ligue 3.
- Villefranche have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Cannes.
- Quevilly have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Orleans.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 30 January 2026, ended Quevilly 1–2 Villefranche.
More Ligue 3 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Villefranche vs Quevilly
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Quevilly at 39% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Villefranche vs Quevilly
Villefranche
Ligue 3
- W2-1Cannes17 October 2026
- L0-3away to Amiens3 October 2026
- L1-2Versailles26 September 2026
- L1-4away to Le Puy Foot19 September 2026
- D0-0La Roche VF12 September 2026
Quevilly
Ligue 3
- W3-2Orleans17 October 2026
- L1-3away to Cannes3 October 2026
- D1-1Amiens26 September 2026
- D0-0away to Versailles19 September 2026
- W2-1Le Puy Foot12 September 2026
What these results say
- Villefranche failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Villefranche conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Villefranche had three goals or more.
- Quevilly scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Quevilly conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Quevilly.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Villefranche | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 23 | -14 | 7 |
| 11 | Quevilly | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Villefranche vs Quevilly
- 30 January 2026Quevilly 1–2 VillefrancheLigue 3
- 22 August 2025Villefranche 2–1 QuevillyLigue 3
- 9 May 2025Villefranche 0–1 QuevillyLigue 3
- 19 January 2025Quevilly 0–1 VillefrancheLigue 3
- 29 May 2022Quevilly 2–0 VillefrancheLigue 2
- 24 May 2022Villefranche 1–3 QuevillyLigue 2
The two sides
Villefranche carry a model rating of 5.95 against 6.12 for Quevilly. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.62 goals for Villefranche and 1.69 for Quevilly. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Villefranche rate 0.46 in attack and 2.81 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Quevilly rate 0.50 and 2.16.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Villefranche a 0% chance of the title and Quevilly 0.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,204 correct results out of 4,575 settled predictions (48%), with 454 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Quevilly the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Villefranche against 1.69 for Quevilly. Villefranche's attack/defence rating is 0.46/2.81 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/2.16 for Quevilly.
How the model reaches 39% for Quevilly to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Quevilly to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Villefranche's ratings add 51 points and Quevilly's ratings take away 41 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Villefranche's ratings80%+51
- Quevilly's ratings39%−41
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Villefranche at home · Quevilly away
League matches only, Ligue 3, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 3 matches this season: Villefranche 10, Quevilly 10.
Quevilly score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Villefranche have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Villefranche
- at Bastia21 Nov · Ligue 3win 24%
- at Valenciennes5 Dec · Ligue 3win 23%
- vs Thionville Lusitanos12 Dec · Ligue 3win 37%
- at Aubagne16 Jan · Ligue 3win 27%
Quevilly
- vs Valenciennes21 Nov · Ligue 3win 48%
- at Thionville Lusitanos5 Dec · Ligue 3win 29%
- vs Aubagne12 Dec · Ligue 3win 51%
- at Caen16 Jan · Ligue 3win 24%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.