Caen
vs
Versailles
Ligue 3 prediction
Our model says: Caen 2–1 Versailles
The model makes it 45% Caen, 25% draw, 30% Versailles — fair odds of 2.22, 4.00 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Caen 1.88, Versailles 1.47.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,131 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Caen's rating is built from 42 Ligue 3 matches and Versailles's from 42, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Caen are 4th on 18 points from 10 games; Versailles are 3rd on 19 points from 10 games — Ligue 3.
- Caen have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to La Roche VF.
- Versailles are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Thionville Lusitanos.
- Last 3 meetings: Versailles 2 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 30 January 2026, ended Versailles 2–1 Caen.
More Ligue 3 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Caen vs Versailles
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Caen at 45% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Caen vs Versailles
Caen
Ligue 3
- W2-1La Roche VF15 October 2026
- L2-3away to Fleury 913 October 2026
- W3-2Rouen24 September 2026
- L0-2away to Concarneau19 September 2026
- W2-0Gobelins12 September 2026
Versailles
Ligue 3
- W2-1away to Thionville Lusitanos17 October 2026
- W1-0Valenciennes3 October 2026
- W2-1away to Villefranche26 September 2026
- D0-0Quevilly19 September 2026
- W4-0away to Orleans12 September 2026
What these results say
- Caen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Caen conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Versailles went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Versailles won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Versailles scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Caen | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 18 |
| 3 | Versailles | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Caen vs Versailles
- 30 January 2026Versailles 2–1 CaenLigue 3
- 22 August 2025Caen 0–2 VersaillesLigue 3
- 23 July 2022Caen 0–0 VersaillesFriendlies Clubs
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Caen carry a model rating of 6.23 against 6.25 for Versailles. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.88 goals for Caen and 1.47 for Versailles. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Caen rate 0.60 in attack and 2.10 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Versailles rate 0.58 and 1.93.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Versailles, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Caen a 4.4% chance of the title and Versailles 11.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,209 correct results out of 4,585 settled predictions (48%), with 455 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Caen the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Caen against 1.47 for Versailles. Caen's attack/defence rating is 0.6/2.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.93 for Versailles.
How the model reaches 45% for Caen to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Caen to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Caen's ratings take away 29 points and Versailles's ratings add 30 points, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Caen's ratings15%−29
- Versailles's ratings45%+30
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Caen at home · Versailles away
League matches only, Ligue 3, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 3 matches this season: Caen 10, Versailles 10.
Caen score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Versailles have let in 3 there.
Versailles score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Caen have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Caen
- at Amiens19 Nov · Ligue 3win 19%
- vs Cannes3 Dec · Ligue 3win 37%
- at Orleans10 Dec · Ligue 3win 35%
- vs Quevilly16 Jan · Ligue 3win 52%
Versailles
- vs Bourg-en-bresse 0121 Nov · Ligue 3win 65%
- at Gobelins5 Dec · Ligue 3win 39%
- vs Concarneau12 Dec · Ligue 3win 50%
- at Rouen16 Jan · Ligue 3win 26%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.