Concarneau
vs
Fleury 91
Ligue 3 prediction
Our model says: Concarneau 2–1 Fleury 91
The model makes it 37% Concarneau, 28% draw, 35% Fleury 91 — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Concarneau 1.43, Fleury 91 1.35.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 961 settled matches.
A tight game: Concarneau and Fleury 91 are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Concarneau's rating is built from 42 Ligue 3 matches and Fleury 91's from 42, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Concarneau are 5th on 17 points from 10 games; Fleury 91 are 9th on 15 points from 10 games — Ligue 3.
- Concarneau are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Bastia.
- Fleury 91 have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Bourg-en-bresse 01.
- Last 4 meetings: Concarneau 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 27 February 2026, ended Fleury 91 0–4 Concarneau.
More Ligue 3 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Concarneau vs Fleury 91
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Concarneau at 37% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Concarneau vs Fleury 91
Concarneau
Ligue 3
- D1-1Bastia17 October 2026
- W2-1Gobelins3 October 2026
- D1-1away to Bourg-en-bresse 0126 September 2026
- W2-0Caen19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Aubagne12 September 2026
Fleury 91
Ligue 3
- W1-0away to Bourg-en-bresse 0117 October 2026
- W3-2Caen3 October 2026
- L1-2Aubagne26 September 2026
- D1-1Thionville Lusitanos19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Valenciennes12 September 2026
What these results say
- Concarneau went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Concarneau scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Concarneau conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fleury 91 scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fleury 91 conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Fleury 91.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Concarneau | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 17 |
| 9 | Fleury 91 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Concarneau vs Fleury 91
- 27 February 2026Fleury 91 0–4 ConcarneauLigue 3
- 19 September 2025Concarneau 0–1 Fleury 91Ligue 3
- 28 May 2016Fleury 91 0–0 ConcarneauNational 2 - Group D
- 9 January 2016Concarneau 3–2 Fleury 91National 2 - Group D
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Concarneau carry a model rating of 6.14 against 6.26 for Fleury 91. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.43 goals for Concarneau and 1.35 for Fleury 91. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Concarneau rate 0.45 in attack and 1.87 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fleury 91 rate 0.60 and 1.95.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Concarneau a 1.2% chance of the title and Fleury 91 3.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,209 correct results out of 4,585 settled predictions (48%), with 455 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Concarneau the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Concarneau against 1.35 for Fleury 91. Concarneau's attack/defence rating is 0.45/1.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.95 for Fleury 91.
How the model reaches 37% for Concarneau to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Concarneau to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Concarneau's ratings take away 31 points and Fleury 91's ratings add 24 points, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Concarneau's ratings13%−31
- Fleury 91's ratings37%+24
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Concarneau at home · Fleury 91 away
League matches only, Ligue 3, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 3 matches this season: Concarneau 10, Fleury 91 10.
Concarneau score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Fleury 91 have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Concarneau
- at La Roche VF21 Nov · Ligue 3win 22%
- vs Le Puy Foot5 Dec · Ligue 3win 39%
- at Versailles12 Dec · Ligue 3win 24%
- vs Amiens16 Jan · Ligue 3win 27%
Fleury 91
- vs Rouen21 Nov · Ligue 3win 43%
- vs Bastia5 Dec · Ligue 3win 56%
- at La Roche VF12 Dec · Ligue 3win 27%
- vs Le Puy Foot16 Jan · Ligue 3win 47%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.