Rosenborg
vs
Start
Eliteserien prediction
Our model says: Rosenborg 3–0 Start
The model makes it 72% Rosenborg, 17% draw, 11% Start — fair odds of 1.39, 5.88 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (9%).
Expected goals: Rosenborg 3.01, Start 0.94.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%, under 2.5: 25%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,486 settled matches.
One-sided: Rosenborg are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Rosenborg's rating is built from 53 Eliteserien matches and Start's from 23, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 667 matches.
Key facts
- Rosenborg are 5th on 37 points from 23 games; Start are bottom on 16 points from 23 games — Eliteserien.
- Rosenborg are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 3-0 win away to Sarpsborg 08 FF.
- Start are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-6 defeat away to Molde.
- Last 6 meetings: Rosenborg 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 18 July 2026, ended Start 0–3 Rosenborg.
More Eliteserien predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Rosenborg vs Start
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rosenborg at 72% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 368 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Rosenborg vs Start
Rosenborg
Eliteserien
- W3-0away to Sarpsborg 08 FF18 October 2026
- D1-1Sandefjord10 October 2026
- W3-1away to Kristiansund BK19 September 2026
- W5-3Tromso12 September 2026
- W4-0Ham-Kam5 September 2026
Start
Eliteserien
- L1-6away to Molde18 October 2026
- L2-4Ham-Kam11 October 2026
- L0-3away to Sandefjord20 September 2026
- W2-0Brann13 September 2026
- L0-2away to Aalesund4 September 2026
What these results say
- Rosenborg went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Rosenborg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Rosenborg won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Start failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Start conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Rosenborg | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 43 | 31 | +12 | 37 |
| 16 | Start | 23 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 25 | 54 | -29 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Rosenborg vs Start
- 18 July 2026Start 0–3 RosenborgEliteserien
- 24 February 2026Rosenborg 2–1 StartFriendlies Clubs
- 1 November 2020Rosenborg 1–0 StartEliteserien
- 16 July 2020Start 0–0 RosenborgEliteserien
- 11 November 2018Start 0–1 RosenborgEliteserien
- 22 April 2018Rosenborg 2–0 StartEliteserien
Leading scorers: Rosenborg and Start
Rosenborg
GoalsAssists
- Amin Chiakha143
Start
No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 25 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Rosenborg carry a model rating of 6.77 against 6.3 for Start. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.01 goals for Rosenborg and 0.94 for Start. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rosenborg rate 0.95 in attack and 1.12 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Start rate 0.59 and 1.77.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rosenborg the highest probability at 72%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.01 expected goals for Rosenborg against 0.94 for Start. Rosenborg's attack/defence rating is 0.95/1.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.77 for Start.
How the model reaches 72% for Rosenborg to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Rosenborg to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Rosenborg's ratings take away 5 points and Start's ratings add 33 points, which lands on the published 72%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Rosenborg's ratings39%−5
- Start's ratings72%+33
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Rosenborg at home · Start away
League matches only, Eliteserien, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eliteserien matches this season: Rosenborg 23, Start 23.
Rosenborg score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Start have let in 13 there.
Start score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); Rosenborg have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Rosenborg
- at Aalesund22 Nov · Eliteserienwin 48%
- vs Molde28 Nov · Eliteserienwin 49%
- at Valerenga5 Dec · Eliteserienwin 47%
Start
- at Valerenga21 Nov · Eliteserienwin 21%
- vs Sarpsborg 08 FF29 Nov · Eliteserienwin 31%
- at Tromso6 Dec · Eliteserienwin 16%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.