Kristiansund BK
vs
Valerenga
Eliteserien prediction
Our model says: Kristiansund BK 1–2 Valerenga
The model makes it 33% Kristiansund BK, 25% draw, 42% Valerenga — fair odds of 3.03, 4.00 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Kristiansund BK 1.54, Valerenga 1.82.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Edge to Valerenga: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Kristiansund BK's rating is built from 52 Eliteserien matches and Valerenga's from 52, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 667 matches.
Key facts
- Kristiansund BK are 15th on 19 points from 23 games; Valerenga are 11th on 26 points from 23 games — Eliteserien.
- Kristiansund BK are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat at home to Aalesund.
- Valerenga have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Brann.
- Last 6 meetings: Valerenga 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 29 May 2026, ended Valerenga 3–1 Kristiansund BK.
More Eliteserien predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Valerenga at 42% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga
Kristiansund BK
Eliteserien
- L1-4Aalesund17 October 2026
- L1-3away to Bodo/Glimt10 October 2026
- L1-3Rosenborg19 September 2026
- L1-8away to Viking13 September 2026
- W2-0Tromso6 September 2026
Valerenga
Eliteserien
- W3-1Brann18 October 2026
- L1-2away to KFUM Oslo12 October 2026
- D1-1Fredrikstad20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Lillestrom12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Sarpsborg 08 FF6 September 2026
What these results say
- Kristiansund BK scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Kristiansund BK failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kristiansund BK conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Valerenga conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Valerenga failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Valerenga scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Kristiansund BK | 23 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 23 | 47 | -24 | 19 |
| 11 | Valerenga | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 38 | 46 | -8 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga
- 29 May 2026Valerenga 3–1 Kristiansund BKEliteserien
- 22 November 2025Valerenga 3–0 Kristiansund BKEliteserien
- 27 April 2025Kristiansund BK 0–2 ValerengaEliteserien
- 10 December 2023Valerenga 0–2 Kristiansund BKEliteserien
- 6 December 2023Kristiansund BK 0–2 ValerengaEliteserien
- 11 September 2022Kristiansund BK 3–2 ValerengaEliteserien
Leading scorers: Kristiansund BK and Valerenga
Kristiansund BK
GoalsAssists
- L. Alvheim110
Valerenga
GoalsAssists
- L. Haren102
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Kristiansund BK carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.51 for Valerenga. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.54 goals for Kristiansund BK and 1.82 for Valerenga. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kristiansund BK rate 0.54 in attack and 1.59 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Valerenga rate 0.80 and 1.59.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Valerenga the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Kristiansund BK against 1.82 for Valerenga. Kristiansund BK's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.59 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.59 for Valerenga.
How the model reaches 42% for Valerenga to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Valerenga to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Kristiansund BK's ratings add 30 points and Valerenga's ratings take away 19 points, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage31%−6
- Kristiansund BK's ratings61%+30
- Valerenga's ratings42%−19
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Kristiansund BK at home · Valerenga away
League matches only, Eliteserien, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eliteserien matches this season: Kristiansund BK 23, Valerenga 23.
Kristiansund BK score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Valerenga have let in 11 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Kristiansund BK
- vs Sandefjord22 Nov · Eliteserienwin 29%
- at Brann29 Nov · Eliteserienwin 17%
- vs Lillestrom6 Dec · Eliteserienwin 28%
Valerenga
- vs Start21 Nov · Eliteserienwin 58%
- at Viking29 Nov · Eliteserienwin 12%
- vs Rosenborg5 Dec · Eliteserienwin 30%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.