Almere City FC
vs
Helmond Sport
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: Almere City FC 2–0 Helmond Sport
The model makes it 61% Almere City FC, 23% draw, 16% Helmond Sport — fair odds of 1.64, 4.35 and 6.25.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Almere City FC 2.17, Helmond Sport 0.89.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,726 settled matches.
Edge to Almere City FC: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Almere City FC's rating is built from 57 Eerste Divisie matches and Helmond Sport's from 51, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Almere City FC are 4th on 25 points from 13 games; Helmond Sport are 17th on 12 points from 13 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- Almere City FC have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Waalwijk.
- Helmond Sport have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to FC Eindhoven.
- Last 6 meetings: Helmond Sport 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 13 February 2026, ended Almere City FC 0–1 Helmond Sport.
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport
Has the model earned this number?
Almere City FC at 61%: of 1,310 settled 50–65% forecasts, 57.0% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport
Almere City FC
Eerste Divisie
- W2-1away to Waalwijk30 October 2026
- L2-3Roda23 October 2026
- L1-2away to Emmen17 October 2026
- W3-0FC Eindhoven9 October 2026
- W1-0FC Volendam3 October 2026
Helmond Sport
Eerste Divisie
- W3-2FC Eindhoven30 October 2026
- L4-5away to Jong AZ23 October 2026
- L0-2NAC Breda16 October 2026
- L1-3away to FC OSS9 October 2026
- D2-2Heracles2 October 2026
What these results say
- Almere City FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Almere City FC had three goals or more.
- Helmond Sport conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Helmond Sport failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Helmond Sport scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Almere City FC | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 27 | 13 | +14 | 25 |
| 17 | Helmond Sport | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport
- 13 February 2026Almere City FC 0–1 Helmond SportEerste Divisie
- 3 October 2025Helmond Sport 2–1 Almere City FCEerste Divisie
- 17 February 2023Almere City FC 0–0 Helmond SportEerste Divisie
- 2 September 2022Helmond Sport 3–0 Almere City FCEerste Divisie
- 11 March 2022Almere City FC 3–0 Helmond SportEerste Divisie
- 1 November 2021Helmond Sport 1–2 Almere City FCEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: Almere City FC and Helmond Sport
Almere City FC
GoalsAssists
- F. Druijf83
- E. Poku43
Helmond Sport
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 23 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The two sides
Almere City FC carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.19 for Helmond Sport.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.17 goals for Almere City FC and 0.89 for Helmond Sport.
Almere City FC rate 0.68 in attack and 1.42 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Helmond Sport rate 0.52 and 1.96.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Almere City FC a 6.8% chance of the title and Helmond Sport 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Almere City FC the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Almere City FC against 0.89 for Helmond Sport. Almere City FC's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.96 for Helmond Sport.
How the model reaches 61% for Almere City FC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Almere City FC to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Almere City FC's ratings add 8 points and Helmond Sport's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 61%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Almere City FC's ratings52%+8
- Helmond Sport's ratings61%+9
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Almere City FC at home · Helmond Sport away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Almere City FC 13, Helmond Sport 13.
Almere City FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Helmond Sport have let in 4 there.
Helmond Sport score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Almere City FC have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Almere City FC
- vs NAC Breda20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 51%
- at Jong Utrecht27 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 45%
- at FC OSS4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 39%
- vs VVV Venlo11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 48%
Helmond Sport
- vs Dordrecht20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 49%
- at Emmen28 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 22%
- vs Jong Utrecht4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 45%
- at Vitesse11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 22%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.