Rizespor
vs
Kasımpaşa
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Rizespor 0–1 Kasımpaşa
The model makes it 35% Rizespor, 28% draw, 37% Kasımpaşa — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Rizespor 1.30, Kasımpaşa 1.37.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,308 settled matches.
A tight game: Rizespor and Kasımpaşa are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 13 November 2026. Rizespor's rating is built from 45 Süper Lig matches and Kasımpaşa's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 747 matches.
Key facts
- Rizespor are 11th on 14 points from 11 games; Kasımpaşa are 5th on 20 points from 11 games — Süper Lig.
- Rizespor have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Erzurumspor FK.
- Kasımpaşa are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Gaziantep FK.
- Last 6 meetings: Kasımpaşa 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 28 February 2026, ended Kasımpaşa 0–3 Rizespor.
More Süper Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa
Has the model earned this number?
Kasımpaşa at 37%: of 4,766 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa
Rizespor
Süper Lig
- W2-1Erzurumspor FK8 November 2026
- D0-0away to Kocaelispor31 October 2026
- L3-4Trabzonspor26 October 2026
- L1-2away to Çorum FK16 October 2026
- L0-3Fenerbahçe10 October 2026
Kasımpaşa
Süper Lig
- W2-0away to Gaziantep FK6 November 2026
- D2-2Beşiktaş1 November 2026
- W1-0away to Eyüpspor24 October 2026
- W4-1Samsunspor18 October 2026
- L1-3away to Galatasaray9 October 2026
What these results say
- Rizespor failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rizespor conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Rizespor had three goals or more.
- Kasımpaşa scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Rizespor | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 14 |
| 5 | Kasımpaşa | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa
- 28 February 2026Kasımpaşa 0–3 RizesporSüper Lig
- 28 September 2025Rizespor 1–2 KasımpaşaSüper Lig
- 9 February 2025Kasımpaşa 3–2 RizesporSüper Lig
- 31 August 2024Rizespor 0–1 KasımpaşaSüper Lig
- 18 May 2024Rizespor 0–0 KasımpaşaSüper Lig
- 25 December 2023Kasımpaşa 2–2 RizesporSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Rizespor and Kasımpaşa
Rizespor
GoalsAssists
- A. Sowe40
Kasımpaşa
GoalsAssists
- A. Benedyczak72
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Rizespor a 0% chance of the title and Kasımpaşa 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kasımpaşa the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Rizespor against 1.37 for Kasımpaşa. Rizespor's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.03 for Kasımpaşa.
How the model reaches 37% for Kasımpaşa to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Kasımpaşa to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Rizespor's ratings add 4 points and Kasımpaşa's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage31%−5
- Both sides at this match's level30%−1
- Rizespor's ratings34%+4
- Kasımpaşa's ratings37%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Rizespor at home · Kasımpaşa away
League matches only, Süper Lig, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
RizesporKasımpaşa
Rizespor are 11th after 11 Süper Lig matches (between 1st and 13th so far); Kasımpaşa are 5th after 11 (between 2nd and 9th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Süper Lig matches this season: Rizespor 11, Kasımpaşa 11.
Kasımpaşa score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Rizespor have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Rizespor
- at Galatasaray4 Dec · Süper Ligwin 12%
- vs Başakşehir13 Dec · Süper Ligwin 29%
- at Beşiktaş20 Dec · Süper Ligwin 15%
- vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.17 Jan · Süper Ligwin 43%
Kasımpaşa
- vs Göztepe7 Dec · Süper Ligwin 42%
- at Erzurumspor FK12 Dec · Süper Ligwin 40%
- vs Fenerbahçe18 Dec · Süper Ligwin 25%
- at Kocaelispor17 Jan · Süper Ligwin 31%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.