Regular Season - 12 · 21 November 2026, 16:00 UTC

Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahçe Süper Lig prediction

Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu, Izmit

Our model says: Kocaelispor 0–1 Fenerbahçe

The model makes it 23% Kocaelispor, 28% draw, 49% Fenerbahçe — fair odds of 4.35, 3.57 and 2.04.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (13%).

Expected goals: Kocaelispor 0.89, Fenerbahçe 1.57.

Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

One-sided: Fenerbahçe are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published 7 November 2026 · updated 12 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Kocaelispor's rating is built from 45 Süper Lig matches and Fenerbahçe's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 747 matches.

Key facts

Kocaelispor are 7th on 19 points from 11 games; Fenerbahçe are 6th on 19 points from 11 games — Süper Lig.
Kocaelispor are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Eyüpspor.
Fenerbahçe have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 5-0 win away to Çorum FK.
Last 2 meetings: Fenerbahçe 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 2 February 2026, ended Kocaelispor 0–2 Fenerbahçe.

More Süper Lig predictions

All Süper Lig predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahçe

47%

Both teams to score

44%

Over 2.5 goals

56%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Kocaelispor win Draw Fenerbahçe win

0–113%
1–113%
0–211%
1–29%
0–09%
1–07%
0–36%

Scores read Kocaelispor first; the other scorelines share the remaining 32%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Fenerbahçe at 49%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahçe

Kocaelispor

Süper Lig

W2-0away to Eyüpspor7 November 2026
D0-0Rizespor31 October 2026
W2-1away to Alanyaspor23 October 2026
L1-2Göztepe18 October 2026
L1-2away to Beşiktaş11 October 2026

Fenerbahçe

Süper Lig

W5-0away to Çorum FK8 November 2026
L1-2Göztepe31 October 2026
L1-2away to Galatasaray26 October 2026
W3-0Alanyaspor17 October 2026
W3-0away to Rizespor10 October 2026

What these results say

Kocaelispor scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Fenerbahçe scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Every one of these 5 matches for Fenerbahçe had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Süper Lig table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
7	Kocaelispor	11	6	1	4	13	9	+4	19
6	Fenerbahçe	11	6	1	4	29	10	+19	19

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Kocaelispor

Chance to finish in the top four · 3% today

Win 5%

Draw 3%

Defeat 2%

Fenerbahçe

Chance to finish in the top four · 72% today

Win 77%

Draw 70%

Defeat 65%

From our Süper Lig season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahçe

2 February 2026Kocaelispor 0–2 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
23 August 2025Fenerbahçe 3–1 KocaelisporSüper Lig

Leading scorers: Kocaelispor and Fenerbahçe

Kocaelispor

GoalsAssists

B. Kutlu51

Fenerbahçe

GoalsAssists

V. Muriqi71
M. Greenwood62
İ. Kahveci53

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Kocaelispor a 0% chance of the title and Fenerbahçe 10.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Kocaelispor Fenerbahçe

0.6 Attack strength (vs league average) 1.35

0.88 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.89

0.89 Model expected goals (this match) 1.57

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Fenerbahçe the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Kocaelispor against 1.57 for Fenerbahçe. Kocaelispor's attack/defence rating is 0.6/0.88 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.35/0.89 for Fenerbahçe.

Kocaelispor carry a model rating of 6.71 against 7.06 for Fenerbahçe.

How the model reaches 49% for Fenerbahçe to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Fenerbahçe to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Kocaelispor's ratings add 7 points and Fenerbahçe's ratings add 12 points, which lands on the published 49%.

Two average sides, neutral ground36%
Home advantage31%−5
Both sides at this match's level30%−1
Kocaelispor's ratings37%+7
Fenerbahçe's ratings49%+12

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

KocaelisporModelFenerbahçe

Over 1.5 goals

70%

7 of 10 games

71%

model, this match

90%

9 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

40%

4 of 10 games

44%

model, this match

80%

8 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

0 of 10 games

23%

model, this match

30%

3 of 10 games

Both teams score

40%

4 of 10 games

47%

model, this match

40%

4 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

KocaelisporFenerbahçe

11Matches11

6W 1D 4LRecord6W 1D 4L

13 1.2 per gameGoals scored29 2.6 per game

9 0.8 per gameGoals conceded10 0.9 per game

5 of 11Clean sheets6 of 11

3 of 11Failed to score1 of 11

1 of 1Penalties scored1 of 3

23 2.1 per gameYellow cards20 1.8 per game

0Red cards1

4-3-3 5×Usual shape4-2-3-1 10×

Kocaelispor at home · Fenerbahçe away

5Played6

3W 1D 1LRecord3W 1D 2L

6–2Goals for – against12–4

4 of 5Clean sheets4 of 6

League matches only, Süper Lig, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

KocaelisporFenerbahçe

Kocaelispor are 7th after 11 Süper Lig matches (between 2nd and 18th so far); Fenerbahçe are 6th after 11 (between 3rd and 17th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Süper Lig matches this season: Kocaelispor 11, Fenerbahçe 11.

Kocaelispor scored 162114

Fenerbahçe conceded 113113

Kocaelispor score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Fenerbahçe have let in 1 there.

Fenerbahçe scored 745544

Kocaelispor conceded 111121

Fenerbahçe score most often in the 0–15 minute window (7 goals); Kocaelispor have let in 1 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Kocaelispor

at Çorum FK29 Nov · Süper Ligwin 31%
at Erzurumspor FK6 Dec · Süper Ligwin 36%
vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.13 Dec · Süper Ligwin 44%
at Trabzonspor21 Dec · Süper Ligwin 18%
vs Kasımpaşa17 Jan · Süper Ligwin 36%

Fenerbahçe

at Shakhtar Donetsk25 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 36%
vs Erzurumspor FK29 Nov · Süper Ligwin 75%
at Başakşehir5 Dec · Süper Ligwin 43%
at Lask Linz9 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 53%
vs Trabzonspor13 Dec · Süper Ligwin 48%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.