Al Ahli Doha
vs
Al Shamal
Stars League prediction
Our model says: Al Ahli Doha 1–2 Al Shamal
The model makes it 37% Al Ahli Doha, 24% draw, 39% Al Shamal — fair odds of 2.70, 4.17 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Al Ahli Doha 1.77, Al Shamal 1.85.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,308 settled matches.
A tight game: Al Ahli Doha and Al Shamal are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 13 November 2026. Al Ahli Doha's rating is built from 31 Qatar Stars League matches and Al Shamal's from 31, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 319 matches.
Key facts
- Al Ahli Doha are 7th on 12 points from 9 games; Al Shamal are 6th on 12 points from 9 games — Stars League.
- Al Ahli Doha are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Al-Arabi SC.
- Al Shamal have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 5-0 win at home to Al-Sailiya.
- Last 6 meetings: Al Ahli Doha 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 7 January 2026, ended Al Ahli Doha 4–2 Al Shamal.
More Qatar Stars League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al Ahli Doha vs Al Shamal
Has the model earned this number?
Al Shamal at 39%: of 4,766 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Al Ahli Doha vs Al Shamal
Al Ahli Doha
Stars League
- D2-2away to Al-Arabi SC6 November 2026
- W2-1away to Al Shahaniya30 October 2026
- D2-2away to Al-Gharafa22 October 2026
- L0-3Al Wakrah16 October 2026
- W5-0Al-Sailiya10 October 2026
Al Shamal
Stars League
- W5-0Al-Sailiya7 November 2026
- L1-4away to Al Sadd30 October 2026
- L2-3Qatar SC23 October 2026
- D0-0away to Lusail City17 October 2026
- L0-4Al-Duhail SC8 October 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Al Ahli Doha had three goals or more.
- Al Ahli Doha scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al Ahli Doha conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al Shamal failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Al Shamal had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Al Ahli Doha | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 12 |
| 6 | Al Shamal | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al Ahli Doha vs Al Shamal
- 7 January 2026Al Ahli Doha 4–2 Al ShamalStars League
- 14 December 2025Al Shamal 0–1 Al Ahli DohaQSL Cup
- 14 August 2025Al Shamal 2–0 Al Ahli DohaStars League
- 28 February 2025Al Ahli Doha 1–1 Al ShamalStars League
- 27 September 2024Al Shamal 2–4 Al Ahli DohaStars League
- 29 March 2024Al Shamal 2–1 Al Ahli DohaStars League
Leading scorers: Al Ahli Doha and Al Shamal
Al Ahli Doha
GoalsAssists
- N. Sliti32
- Erik Expósito31
Al Shamal
GoalsAssists
- A. Zouhzouh61
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al Shamal the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Al Ahli Doha against 1.85 for Al Shamal. Al Ahli Doha's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.6 for Al Shamal.
How the model reaches 39% for Al Shamal to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for Al Shamal to win. Then home advantage takes away 1 point, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Al Ahli Doha's ratings change nothing and Al Shamal's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground38%
- Home advantage37%−1
- Both sides at this match's level38%+1
- Al Ahli Doha's ratings38%±0
- Al Shamal's ratings39%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Al Ahli Doha at home · Al Shamal away
League matches only, Stars League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Stars League matches this season: Al Ahli Doha 9, Al Shamal 9.
Al Ahli Doha score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Al Shamal have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Al Ahli Doha
- vs Al-Duhail SC3 Dec · Stars Leaguewin 23%
Al Shamal
- vs Al-Rayyan SC3 Dec · Stars Leaguewin 22%
- at Al-Qadisiyah FC7 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 7%
- at Al-Nassr8 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 8%
- vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya15 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 61%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.