Macarthur FC
vs
Melbourne City
A-League prediction
Our model says: Macarthur FC 1–2 Melbourne City
The model makes it 35% Macarthur FC, 26% draw, 39% Melbourne City — fair odds of 2.86, 3.85 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Macarthur FC 1.49, Melbourne City 1.60.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,308 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Macarthur FC are 7th on 5 points from 4 games; Melbourne City are 4th on 7 points from 4 games — A-League.
- Macarthur FC are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Brisbane Roar.
- Melbourne City are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Western Sydney Wanderers.
- Last 6 meetings: Macarthur FC 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 24 January 2026, ended Macarthur FC 6–2 Melbourne City.
More A-League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Macarthur FC vs Melbourne City
Has the model earned this number?
Melbourne City at 39%: of 4,766 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Macarthur FC vs Melbourne City
Macarthur FC
A-League
- L1-2Brisbane Roar8 November 2026
- D0-0Western Sydney Wanderers31 October 2026
- D1-1away to Newcastle Jets24 October 2026
- W2-1Perth Glory17 October 2026
Melbourne City
A-League
- W2-1Western Sydney Wanderers7 November 2026
- W2-1Sydney FC31 October 2026
- D1-1away to Melbourne Victory24 October 2026
- L1-3away to Auckland FC17 October 2026
What these results say
- Macarthur FC failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Macarthur FC scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Macarthur FC conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Melbourne City scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Melbourne City conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Melbourne City.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
A-League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Macarthur FC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 5 |
| 4 | Melbourne City | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Macarthur FC vs Melbourne City
- 24 January 2026Macarthur FC 6–2 Melbourne CityA-League
- 23 December 2025Melbourne City 1–1 Macarthur FCA-League
- 7 March 2025Melbourne City 2–0 Macarthur FCA-League
- 25 January 2025Macarthur FC 1–0 Melbourne CityA-League
- 1 March 2024Macarthur FC 2–0 Melbourne CityA-League
- 12 November 2023Melbourne City 3–3 Macarthur FCA-League
Leading scorers: Macarthur FC and Melbourne City
Macarthur FC
GoalsAssists
- M. Toure11
Melbourne City
GoalsAssists
- A. Nabbout20
- E. Marcondes12
- Q. Macnicol10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Melbourne City the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Macarthur FC against 1.60 for Melbourne City. Macarthur FC's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.8 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.7 for Melbourne City.
How the model reaches 39% for Melbourne City to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Melbourne City to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, Macarthur FC's ratings add 2 points and Melbourne City's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage35%−2
- Macarthur FC's ratings37%+2
- Melbourne City's ratings39%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Season stats
Macarthur FC at home · Melbourne City away
League matches only, A-League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All A-League matches this season: Macarthur FC 4, Melbourne City 4.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Macarthur FC
- at Adelaide United11 Dec · A-Leaguewin 35%
- vs Central Coast Mariners21 Dec · A-Leaguewin 44%
- at Sydney FC28 Dec · A-Leaguewin 27%
- at Western Sydney Wanderers1 Jan · A-Leaguewin 33%
Melbourne City
- at Perth Glory11 Dec · A-Leaguewin 34%
- vs Melbourne Victory19 Dec · A-Leaguewin 38%
- vs Auckland FC27 Dec · A-Leaguewin 37%
- at Central Coast Mariners31 Dec · A-Leaguewin 44%
- vs Wellington Phoenix10 Jan · A-Leaguewin 35%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.