Amed
vs
Rizespor
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Amed 2–1 Rizespor
The model makes it 65% Amed, 19% draw, 16% Rizespor — fair odds of 1.54, 5.26 and 6.25.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Amed 2.83, Rizespor 1.21.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 77%, under 2.5: 23%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Amed are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 10 November 2026. Amed's rating is built from 11 Süper Lig matches and Rizespor's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 747 matches.
Key facts
- Amed are 3rd on 23 points from 11 games; Rizespor are 11th on 14 points from 11 games — Süper Lig.
- Amed have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-4 defeat away to Galatasaray.
- Rizespor have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Erzurumspor FK.
More Süper Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Amed vs Rizespor
Has the model earned this number?
Amed at 65%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Amed vs Rizespor
Amed
Süper Lig
- L3-4away to Galatasaray7 November 2026
- W5-1Eyüpspor1 November 2026
- W2-1away to Samsunspor24 October 2026
- W1-0Konyaspor17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Gençlerbirliği S.K.10 October 2026
Rizespor
Süper Lig
- W2-1Erzurumspor FK8 November 2026
- D0-0away to Kocaelispor31 October 2026
- L3-4Trabzonspor26 October 2026
- L1-2away to Çorum FK16 October 2026
- L0-3Fenerbahçe10 October 2026
What these results say
- Amed scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Amed conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Amed had three goals or more.
- Rizespor failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rizespor conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Rizespor had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Amed | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 15 | +13 | 23 |
| 11 | Rizespor | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Amed
Chance to finish in the top four · 57% today
Rizespor
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 9% today
From our Süper Lig season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Amed vs Rizespor
- 2 October 2012Amed 1–0 RizesporTürkiye Kupası
Leading scorers: Amed and Rizespor
Amed
GoalsAssists
- G. Orban104
- D. Sabia61
- S. Ballet41
Rizespor
GoalsAssists
- A. Sowe40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Amed a 4.8% chance of the title and Rizespor 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Amed the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.83 expected goals for Amed against 1.21 for Rizespor. Amed's attack/defence rating is 1.28/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.33 for Rizespor.
How the model reaches 65% for Amed to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Amed to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Amed's ratings add 11 points and Rizespor's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 65%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- Both sides at this match's level45%+2
- Amed's ratings56%+11
- Rizespor's ratings65%+9
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Amed at home · Rizespor away
League matches only, Süper Lig, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
AmedRizespor
Amed are 3rd after 11 Süper Lig matches (between 1st and 9th so far); Rizespor are 11th after 11 (between 1st and 13th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Süper Lig matches this season: Amed 11, Rizespor 11.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Amed
- at Gaziantep FK28 Nov · Süper Ligwin 58%
- vs Alanyaspor5 Dec · Süper Ligwin 68%
- at Çorum FK11 Dec · Süper Ligwin 47%
- vs Göztepe18 Dec · Süper Ligwin 56%
- at Fenerbahçe17 Jan · Süper Ligwin 22%
Rizespor
- vs Kasımpaşa27 Nov · Süper Ligwin 34%
- at Galatasaray4 Dec · Süper Ligwin 12%
- vs Başakşehir13 Dec · Süper Ligwin 29%
- at Beşiktaş20 Dec · Süper Ligwin 15%
- vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.17 Jan · Süper Ligwin 43%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.