Randers FC
vs
FC Nordsjaelland
Superliga prediction
Our model says: Randers FC 0–1 FC Nordsjaelland
The model makes it 25% Randers FC, 28% draw, 47% FC Nordsjaelland — fair odds of 4.00, 3.57 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Randers FC 1.01, FC Nordsjaelland 1.60.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
One-sided: FC Nordsjaelland are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Randers FC's rating is built from 44 Danish Superliga matches and FC Nordsjaelland's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 453 matches.
Key facts
- Randers FC are 9th on 11 points from 12 games; FC Nordsjaelland are 4th on 19 points from 11 games — Superliga.
- Randers FC have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Brondby.
- FC Nordsjaelland are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 3-3 draw away to Lyngby.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 2 August 2026, ended FC Nordsjaelland 1–0 Randers FC.
More Danish Superliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Randers FC vs FC Nordsjaelland
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Nordsjaelland at 47% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Randers FC vs FC Nordsjaelland
Randers FC
Superliga
- L1-3Brondby23 October 2026
- D0-0away to AC Horsens16 October 2026
- L0-2Viborg11 October 2026
- L2-4away to Sonderjyske20 September 2026
- L1-2Odense13 September 2026
FC Nordsjaelland
Superliga
- D3-3away to Lyngby18 October 2026
- D0-0Odense9 October 2026
- L1-4away to Viborg20 September 2026
- W2-0Aarhus13 September 2026
- D2-2away to FC Midtjylland7 September 2026
What these results say
- Randers FC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Randers FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Nordsjaelland failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Nordsjaelland scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Randers FC | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 11 |
| 4 | FC Nordsjaelland | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Randers FC vs FC Nordsjaelland
- 2 August 2026FC Nordsjaelland 1–0 Randers FCSuperliga
- 19 October 2025FC Nordsjaelland 1–0 Randers FCSuperliga
- 22 September 2025Randers FC 3–0 FC NordsjaellandSuperliga
- 2 May 2025Randers FC 3–2 FC NordsjaellandSuperliga
- 13 April 2025FC Nordsjaelland 5–2 Randers FCSuperliga
- 28 October 2024Randers FC 4–0 FC NordsjaellandSuperliga
Leading scorers: Randers FC and FC Nordsjaelland
Randers FC
GoalsAssists
- M. Themsen41
- E. Mahmoud31
FC Nordsjaelland
GoalsAssists
- A. Lind31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Randers FC carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.68 for FC Nordsjaelland. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.01 goals for Randers FC and 1.60 for FC Nordsjaelland. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Randers FC rate 0.53 in attack and 1.37 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Nordsjaelland rate 0.77 and 1.09.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Randers FC a 0% chance of the title and FC Nordsjaelland 2.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Nordsjaelland the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Randers FC against 1.60 for FC Nordsjaelland. Randers FC's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.09 for FC Nordsjaelland.
How the model reaches 47% for FC Nordsjaelland to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for FC Nordsjaelland to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, Randers FC's ratings add 25 points and FC Nordsjaelland's ratings take away 11 points, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage33%−4
- Randers FC's ratings58%+25
- FC Nordsjaelland's ratings47%−11
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Randers FC at home · FC Nordsjaelland away
League matches only, Superliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Randers FCFC Nordsjaelland
Randers FC are 9th after 12 Superliga matches (between 3rd and 10th so far); FC Nordsjaelland are 4th after 11 (between 1st and 7th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Superliga matches this season: Randers FC 12, FC Nordsjaelland 11.
FC Nordsjaelland score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Randers FC have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Randers FC
- at Viborg22 Nov · Superligawin 20%
- vs AC Horsens29 Nov · Superligawin 31%
- at Aarhus5 Dec · Superligawin 20%
- at Silkeborg21 Feb · Superligawin 30%
FC Nordsjaelland
- vs FC Copenhagen22 Nov · Superligawin 33%
- vs Panathinaikos26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.