FC Midtjylland
vs
Sonderjyske
Superliga prediction
Our model says: FC Midtjylland 2–1 Sonderjyske
The model makes it 67% FC Midtjylland, 19% draw, 14% Sonderjyske — fair odds of 1.49, 5.26 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: FC Midtjylland 2.73, Sonderjyske 1.01.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,566 settled matches.
One-sided: FC Midtjylland are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. FC Midtjylland's rating is built from 43 Danish Superliga matches and Sonderjyske's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 453 matches.
Key facts
- FC Midtjylland are 2nd on 25 points from 11 games; Sonderjyske are 11th on 8 points from 11 games — Superliga.
- FC Midtjylland are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Viborg.
- Sonderjyske have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-0 win at home to Silkeborg.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Midtjylland 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 26 July 2026, ended Sonderjyske 2–3 FC Midtjylland.
More Danish Superliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Midtjylland vs Sonderjyske
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Midtjylland at 67% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 378 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into FC Midtjylland vs Sonderjyske
FC Midtjylland
Superliga
- W2-1away to Viborg19 October 2026
- W2-1FC Copenhagen11 October 2026
- D1-1away to Odense19 September 2026
- W4-1Brondby14 September 2026
- D2-2FC Nordsjaelland7 September 2026
Sonderjyske
Superliga
- W4-0Silkeborg18 October 2026
- L0-3away to Aarhus12 October 2026
- W4-2Randers FC20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Lyngby13 September 2026
- L2-5AC Horsens6 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Midtjylland went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- FC Midtjylland scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Midtjylland conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sonderjyske scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sonderjyske conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sonderjyske had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | FC Midtjylland | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 21 | 11 | +10 | 25 |
| 11 | Sonderjyske | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Midtjylland vs Sonderjyske
- 26 July 2026Sonderjyske 2–3 FC MidtjyllandSuperliga
- 23 April 2026Sonderjyske 1–2 FC MidtjyllandSuperliga
- 4 April 2026FC Midtjylland 2–2 SonderjyskeSuperliga
- 9 January 2026Sonderjyske 3–6 FC MidtjyllandFriendlies Clubs
- 23 November 2025Sonderjyske 2–1 FC MidtjyllandSuperliga
- 28 July 2025FC Midtjylland 6–2 SonderjyskeSuperliga
Leading scorers: FC Midtjylland and Sonderjyske
FC Midtjylland
GoalsAssists
- F. Etim53
- S. Iheanacho31
Sonderjyske
GoalsAssists
- M. Haidara50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FC Midtjylland carry a model rating of 6.89 against 6.47 for Sonderjyske. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.73 goals for FC Midtjylland and 1.01 for Sonderjyske. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Midtjylland rate 1.00 in attack and 0.93 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sonderjyske rate 0.72 and 1.56.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Midtjylland a 53.6% chance of the title and Sonderjyske 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Midtjylland the highest probability at 67%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.73 expected goals for FC Midtjylland against 1.01 for Sonderjyske. FC Midtjylland's attack/defence rating is 1/0.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.56 for Sonderjyske.
How the model reaches 67% for FC Midtjylland to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for FC Midtjylland to win. Then home advantage adds 4 points, FC Midtjylland's ratings add 2 points and Sonderjyske's ratings add 24 points, which lands on the published 67%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage41%+4
- FC Midtjylland's ratings43%+2
- Sonderjyske's ratings67%+24
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Midtjylland at home · Sonderjyske away
League matches only, Superliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
FC MidtjyllandSonderjyske
FC Midtjylland are 2nd after 11 Superliga matches (between 1st and 3rd so far); Sonderjyske are 11th after 11 (between 11th and 12th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Superliga matches this season: FC Midtjylland 11, Sonderjyske 11.
FC Midtjylland score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Sonderjyske have let in 3 there.
Sonderjyske score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); FC Midtjylland have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
FC Midtjylland
- at Brondby23 Nov · Superligawin 49%
- at Pafos26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 34%
Sonderjyske
- vs Odense22 Nov · Superligawin 41%
- vs Brondby27 Nov · Superligawin 34%
- at Viborg7 Dec · Superligawin 23%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.