Chico
vs
Internacional de Bogota
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Chico 1–0 Internacional de Bogota
The model makes it 35% Chico, 30% draw, 35% Internacional de Bogota — fair odds of 2.86, 3.33 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Chico 1.20, Internacional de Bogota 1.21.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,017 settled matches.
A tight game: Chico and Internacional de Bogota are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Chico's rating is built from 74 Colombian Primera A matches and Internacional de Bogota's from 76, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,233 matches.
Key facts
- Chico are 16th on 15 points from 15 games; Internacional de Bogota are 12th on 17 points from 15 games — Primera A.
- Chico have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Bucaramanga.
- Internacional de Bogota are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Fortaleza FC.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 27 April 2026, ended Internacional de Bogota 4–0 Chico.
More Colombian Primera A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Chico vs Internacional de Bogota
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Chico at 35% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 3,676 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Chico vs Internacional de Bogota
Chico
Primera A
- W1-0Bucaramanga23 October 2026
- L0-2away to Deportivo Pereira20 October 2026
- L1-4Atletico Nacional17 October 2026
- L0-1Cucuta11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Deportes Tolima3 October 2026
Internacional de Bogota
Primera A
- W2-1Fortaleza FC20 October 2026
- D2-2away to Junior10 October 2026
- D1-1Once Caldas4 October 2026
- D0-0away to Deportivo Pereira26 September 2026
- L0-2away to Bucaramanga20 September 2026
What these results say
- Chico failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Chico had two goals or fewer.
- Internacional de Bogota failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Internacional de Bogota conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Chico | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 15 |
| 12 | Internacional de Bogota | 15 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Chico vs Internacional de Bogota
- 27 April 2026Internacional de Bogota 4–0 ChicoPrimera A
- 12 August 2025Chico 0–0 Internacional de BogotaPrimera A
- 22 February 2025Internacional de Bogota 0–1 ChicoPrimera A
- 29 October 2024Chico 1–0 Internacional de BogotaPrimera A
- 8 April 2024Internacional de Bogota 4–0 ChicoPrimera A
- 9 September 2023Internacional de Bogota 0–0 ChicoPrimera A
Leading scorers: Chico and Internacional de Bogota
Chico
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Internacional de Bogota
GoalsAssists
- F. Sanguinetti97
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Chico carry a model rating of 6.19 against 6.37 for Internacional de Bogota. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.20 goals for Chico and 1.21 for Internacional de Bogota. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Chico rate 0.48 in attack and 1.80 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Internacional de Bogota rate 0.66 and 1.72.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Internacional de Bogota, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Chico the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Chico against 1.21 for Internacional de Bogota. Chico's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.8 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.72 for Internacional de Bogota.
How the model reaches 35% for Chico to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Chico to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, Chico's ratings take away 28 points and Internacional de Bogota's ratings add 19 points, which lands on the published 35%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground35%
- Home advantage44%+9
- Chico's ratings16%−28
- Internacional de Bogota's ratings35%+19
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Chico at home · Internacional de Bogota away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: Chico 32, Internacional de Bogota 36.
Chico score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Internacional de Bogota have let in 11 there.
Internacional de Bogota score most often in the 46–60 minute window (11 goals); Chico have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Chico
- at Llaneros12 Nov · Primera Awin 20%
Internacional de Bogota
- vs Santa Fe12 Nov · Primera Awin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.