Aarhus
vs
AC Horsens
Superliga prediction
Our model says: Aarhus 2–1 AC Horsens
The model makes it 48% Aarhus, 25% draw, 27% AC Horsens — fair odds of 2.08, 4.00 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Aarhus 1.99, AC Horsens 1.37.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Aarhus's rating is built from 43 Danish Superliga matches and AC Horsens's from 11, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 453 matches.
Key facts
- Aarhus are 10th on 9 points from 11 games; AC Horsens are 6th on 13 points from 11 games — Superliga.
- Aarhus are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to FC Copenhagen.
- AC Horsens are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Randers FC.
- Last 6 meetings: Aarhus 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 20 September 2026, ended AC Horsens 2–2 Aarhus.
More Danish Superliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Aarhus vs AC Horsens
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aarhus at 48% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Aarhus vs AC Horsens
Aarhus
Superliga
- D1-1away to FC Copenhagen18 October 2026
- W3-0Sonderjyske12 October 2026
- D2-2away to AC Horsens20 September 2026
- L0-2away to FC Nordsjaelland13 September 2026
- D2-2Silkeborg5 September 2026
AC Horsens
Superliga
- D0-0Randers FC16 October 2026
- D3-3away to Silkeborg11 October 2026
- D2-2Aarhus20 September 2026
- L0-2away to FC Copenhagen11 September 2026
- W5-2away to Sonderjyske6 September 2026
What these results say
- Aarhus failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aarhus scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aarhus conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- AC Horsens failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- AC Horsens conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Aarhus | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 9 |
| 6 | AC Horsens | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Aarhus vs AC Horsens
- 20 September 2026AC Horsens 2–2 AarhusSuperliga
- 15 July 2026Aarhus 2–0 AC HorsensFriendlies Clubs
- 2 July 2025Aarhus 2–1 AC HorsensFriendlies Clubs
- 30 June 2024AC Horsens 0–3 AarhusFriendlies Clubs
- 8 July 2023Aarhus 2–1 AC HorsensFriendlies Clubs
- 3 March 2023Aarhus 2–0 AC HorsensSuperliga
Leading scorers: Aarhus and AC Horsens
Aarhus
GoalsAssists
- J. Serra50
- C. McCowatt32
AC Horsens
GoalsAssists
- K. Ehibhatiomhan40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Aarhus carry a model rating of 6.66 against 6.55 for AC Horsens. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.99 goals for Aarhus and 1.37 for AC Horsens. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Aarhus rate 0.79 in attack and 1.16 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AC Horsens rate 0.78 and 1.44.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour AC Horsens, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Aarhus a 0% chance of the title and AC Horsens 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Aarhus the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Aarhus against 1.37 for AC Horsens. Aarhus's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.44 for AC Horsens.
How the model reaches 48% for Aarhus to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Aarhus to win. Then home advantage adds 4 points, Aarhus's ratings take away 11 points and AC Horsens's ratings add 18 points, which lands on the published 48%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage41%+4
- Aarhus's ratings30%−11
- AC Horsens's ratings48%+18
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Aarhus at home · AC Horsens away
League matches only, Superliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
AarhusAC Horsens
Aarhus are 10th after 11 Superliga matches (between 2nd and 11th so far); AC Horsens are 6th after 11 (between 5th and 12th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Superliga matches this season: Aarhus 11, AC Horsens 11.
AC Horsens score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Aarhus have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Aarhus
- vs Lyngby20 Nov · Superligawin 58%
- at Brann26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 29%
AC Horsens
- vs Silkeborg22 Nov · Superligawin 50%
- at Randers FC29 Nov · Superligawin 42%
- vs FC Copenhagen6 Dec · Superligawin 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.