America de Cali
vs
Deportivo Cali
Primera A prediction
Our model says: America de Cali 1–0 Deportivo Cali
The model makes it 41% America de Cali, 33% draw, 26% Deportivo Cali — fair odds of 2.44, 3.03 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).
Expected goals: America de Cali 1.14, Deportivo Cali 0.80.
Both teams to score: 38%. Over 2.5 goals: 31%, under 2.5: 69%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. America de Cali's rating is built from 88 Colombian Primera A matches and Deportivo Cali's from 74, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,233 matches.
Key facts
- America de Cali are top on 31 points from 15 games; Deportivo Cali are 3rd on 29 points from 15 games — Primera A.
- America de Cali have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Cucuta.
- Deportivo Cali are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 3-0 win away to Llaneros.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended Deportivo Cali 1–0 America de Cali.
More Colombian Primera A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: America de Cali vs Deportivo Cali
Has the model earned this number?
It puts America de Cali at 41% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into America de Cali vs Deportivo Cali
America de Cali
Primera A
- W3-1Cucuta24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Bucaramanga18 October 2026
- L1-2Independiente Medellin12 October 2026
- W2-1away to Llaneros5 October 2026
- W1-0Águilas Doradas24 September 2026
Deportivo Cali
Primera A
- W3-0away to Llaneros21 October 2026
- D0-0Junior19 October 2026
- D0-0away to Deportivo Pereira10 October 2026
- W3-1Alianza Valledupar3 October 2026
- W2-0Águilas Doradas28 September 2026
What these results say
- America de Cali scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- America de Cali conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for America de Cali.
- Deportivo Cali went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Deportivo Cali kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America de Cali | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 11 | +18 | 31 |
| 3 | Deportivo Cali | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 23 | 9 | +14 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
America de Cali
Chance to finish top of the Clausura · 30% today
Deportivo Cali
Chance to finish top of the Clausura · 11% today
From our Primera A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: America de Cali vs Deportivo Cali
- 25 April 2026Deportivo Cali 1–0 America de CaliPrimera A
- 19 October 2025Deportivo Cali 0–2 America de CaliPrimera A
- 7 September 2025America de Cali 0–0 Deportivo CaliPrimera A
- 27 April 2025America de Cali 2–0 Deportivo CaliPrimera A
- 24 March 2025Deportivo Cali 1–1 America de CaliPrimera A
- 3 November 2024America de Cali 0–1 Deportivo CaliPrimera A
Leading scorers: America de Cali and Deportivo Cali
America de Cali
GoalsAssists
- Y. Guzmán186
Deportivo Cali
GoalsAssists
- S. Rodríguez113
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
America de Cali carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.71 for Deportivo Cali. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.14 goals for America de Cali and 0.80 for Deportivo Cali. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
America de Cali rate 0.81 in attack and 1.12 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Deportivo Cali rate 0.70 and 0.97.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives America de Cali a 30.4% chance of the title and Deportivo Cali 10.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives America de Cali the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.14 expected goals for America de Cali against 0.80 for Deportivo Cali. America de Cali's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/0.97 for Deportivo Cali.
How the model reaches 41% for America de Cali to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for America de Cali to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, America de Cali's ratings take away 8 points and Deportivo Cali's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground35%
- Home advantage44%+9
- America de Cali's ratings36%−8
- Deportivo Cali's ratings41%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
America de Cali at home · Deportivo Cali away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: America de Cali 34, Deportivo Cali 34.
America de Cali score most often in the 16–30 minute window (13 goals); Deportivo Cali have let in 1 there.
Deportivo Cali score most often in the 61–75 minute window (11 goals); America de Cali have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
America de Cali
- at Deportivo Pereira12 Nov · Primera Awin 47%
Deportivo Cali
- vs Deportes Tolima12 Nov · Primera Awin 48%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.