Morton
vs
Ayr Utd
Championship prediction
Our model says: Morton 1–2 Ayr Utd
The model makes it 36% Morton, 27% draw, 37% Ayr Utd — fair odds of 2.78, 3.70 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Morton 1.45, Ayr Utd 1.49.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Morton and Ayr Utd are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Morton are bottom on 4 points from 10 games; Ayr Utd are 7th on 12 points from 10 games — Championship.
- Morton have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Arbroath.
- Ayr Utd have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Dunfermline.
- Last 6 meetings: Morton 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 29 August 2026, ended Ayr Utd 1–1 Morton.
More Scottish Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Morton vs Ayr Utd
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ayr Utd at 37% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Morton vs Ayr Utd
Morton
- W2-1away to Arbroath10 October 2026
- L1-2Raith Rovers3 October 2026
- L0-2away to Inverness CT25 September 2026
- L0-1Dunfermline19 September 2026
- L1-4Livingston11 September 2026
Ayr Utd
- D1-1Dunfermline10 October 2026
- W2-1away to Livingston3 October 2026
- L0-1Stenhousemuir25 September 2026
- W2-0away to Queen's Park18 September 2026
- L1-3Inverness CT12 September 2026
What these results say
- Morton conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Morton failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ayr Utd scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ayr Utd conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Morton | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 4 |
| 7 | Ayr Utd | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Ayr Utd
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 65% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Morton vs Ayr Utd
- 29 August 2026Ayr Utd 1–1 MortonChampionship
- 21 March 2026Ayr Utd 0–1 MortonChampionship
- 27 December 2025Morton 1–1 Ayr UtdChampionship
- 18 October 2025Ayr Utd 2–1 MortonChampionship
- 23 August 2025Morton 2–2 Ayr UtdChampionship
- 8 March 2025Morton 2–1 Ayr UtdChampionship
The two sides
Morton carry a model rating of 5.79 against 5.95 for Ayr Utd. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.45 goals for Morton and 1.49 for Ayr Utd. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Morton rate 0.37 in attack and 3.10 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ayr Utd rate 0.40 and 2.41.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ayr Utd the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Morton against 1.49 for Ayr Utd. Morton's attack/defence rating is 0.37/3.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.4/2.41 for Ayr Utd.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Morton at home · Ayr Utd away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Morton 10, Ayr Utd 10.
Morton score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Ayr Utd have let in 1 there.
Ayr Utd score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Morton have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Morton
- at Partick31 Oct · Championshipwin 10%
- vs Stenhousemuir7 Nov · Championshipwin 21%
- at Livingston14 Nov · Championshipwin 12%
- at Dunfermline21 Nov · Championshipwin 10%
Ayr Utd
- vs Queen's Park31 Oct · Championshipwin 50%
- at Arbroath7 Nov · Championshipwin 16%
- vs Raith Rovers14 Nov · Championshipwin 32%
- at Inverness CT20 Nov · Championshipwin 23%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.