Racing Santander
vs
Real Madrid
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Racing Santander 1–3 Real Madrid
The model makes it 14% Racing Santander, 18% draw, 68% Real Madrid — fair odds of 7.14, 5.56 and 1.47. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-3 (8%).
Expected goals: Racing Santander 1.18, Real Madrid 3.03.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 79%, under 2.5: 21%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Real Madrid are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- Racing Santander are 15th on 8 points from 8 games; Real Madrid are 4th on 18 points from 8 games — La Liga.
- Racing Santander are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Valencia.
- Real Madrid have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Villarreal.
- Last 4 meetings: Real Madrid 3 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 18 February 2012, ended Real Madrid 4–0 Racing Santander.
More La Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Racing Santander vs Real Madrid
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Real Madrid at 68% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 332 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.9%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Racing Santander vs Real Madrid
Racing Santander
- D2-2Valencia11 October 2026
- L0-5away to Celta Vigo19 September 2026
- L2-7away to Barcelona16 September 2026
- W2-1Alaves12 September 2026
- L2-3away to Rayo Vallecano5 September 2026
Real Madrid
- W1-0Villarreal10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Atletico Madrid20 September 2026
- W3-2away to Elche15 September 2026
- W4-1Rayo Vallecano12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Real Betis4 September 2026
What these results say
- Racing Santander conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Racing Santander had three goals or more.
- Racing Santander failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Real Madrid scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Real Madrid conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Racing Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 8 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Racing Santander vs Real Madrid
- 18 February 2012Real Madrid 4–0 Racing SantanderLa Liga
- 21 September 2011Racing Santander 0–0 Real MadridLa Liga
- 6 March 2011Racing Santander 1–3 Real MadridLa Liga
- 23 October 2010Real Madrid 6–1 Racing SantanderLa Liga
Leading scorers: Racing Santander and Real Madrid
Racing Santander
GoalsAssists
- M. Zabiri70
Real Madrid
GoalsAssists
- Kylian Mbappé72
- J. Bellingham32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Racing Santander carry a model rating of 6.7 against 7.27 for Real Madrid. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.18 goals for Racing Santander and 3.03 for Real Madrid. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Racing Santander rate 1.09 in attack and 1.60 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Real Madrid rate 1.54 and 0.67.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Racing Santander a 0% chance of the title and Real Madrid 16.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Real Madrid the highest probability at 68%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Racing Santander against 3.03 for Real Madrid. Racing Santander's attack/defence rating is 1.09/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.54/0.67 for Real Madrid.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Racing Santander at home · Real Madrid away
League matches only, La Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Racing SantanderReal Madrid
Racing Santander are 15th after 8 La Liga matches (between 3rd and 15th so far); Real Madrid are 3rd after 8 (between 1st and 5th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Racing Santander 8, Real Madrid 8.
Racing Santander score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Real Madrid have let in 1 there.
Real Madrid score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Racing Santander have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Racing Santander
- at Malaga7 Nov · La Ligawin 35%
- vs Real Sociedad22 Nov · La Ligawin 32%
- at Levante29 Nov · La Ligawin 23%
Real Madrid
- at AEK Athens FC4 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 35%
- at Valencia7 Nov · La Ligawin 57%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.