Malaga
vs
Real Sociedad
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Malaga 0–1 Real Sociedad
The model makes it 28% Malaga, 29% draw, 43% Real Sociedad — fair odds of 3.57, 3.45 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Malaga 1.03, Real Sociedad 1.56.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Malaga are bottom on 3 points from 7 games; Real Sociedad are 8th on 10 points from 7 games — La Liga.
- Malaga have not won in their last 5, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Getafe.
- Real Sociedad have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 3-2 win away to Valencia.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 7 January 2024, ended Malaga 0–1 Real Sociedad.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Malaga vs Real Sociedad
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Real Sociedad at 43% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Malaga vs Real Sociedad
Malaga
- L0-1away to Getafe20 September 2026
- L1-3Villarreal17 September 2026
- D1-1away to Celta Vigo13 September 2026
- D0-0Levante6 September 2026
- L0-4away to Real Madrid30 August 2026
Real Sociedad
- W3-2away to Valencia20 September 2026
- L0-3Atletico Madrid13 September 2026
- W3-2away to Elche7 September 2026
- D0-0Celta Vigo3 September 2026
- W2-1Espanyol29 August 2026
What these results say
- Malaga did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Malaga conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Real Sociedad conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Real Sociedad had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Malaga | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 3 |
| 8 | Real Sociedad | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Malaga vs Real Sociedad
- 7 January 2024Malaga 0–1 Real SociedadCopa del Rey
- 22 April 2018Malaga 2–0 Real SociedadLa Liga
- 10 December 2017Real Sociedad 0–2 MalagaLa Liga
- 14 May 2017Real Sociedad 2–2 MalagaLa Liga
- 16 January 2017Malaga 0–2 Real SociedadLa Liga
- 27 February 2016Real Sociedad 1–1 MalagaLa Liga
Leading scorers: Malaga and Real Sociedad
Malaga
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Real Sociedad
- L. Sučić3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Malaga carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.9 for Real Sociedad. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.03 goals for Malaga and 1.56 for Real Sociedad. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Malaga rate 0.58 in attack and 1.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Real Sociedad rate 1.19 and 1.10.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Malaga a 0% chance of the title and Real Sociedad 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Real Sociedad the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Malaga against 1.56 for Real Sociedad. Malaga's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.19/1.1 for Real Sociedad.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Malaga at home · Real Sociedad away
League matches only, La Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Malaga 7, Real Sociedad 7.
Real Sociedad score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Malaga have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Malaga
- at Alaves25 Oct · La Ligawin 21%
- at Real Betis1 Nov · La Ligawin 16%
- vs Racing Santander8 Nov · La Ligawin 37%
- at Osasuna22 Nov · La Ligawin 25%
Real Sociedad
- at Lillestrom22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 44%
- vs Levante25 Oct · La Ligawin 47%
- at Athletic Club1 Nov · La Ligawin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.