Celta Vigo
vs
Alaves
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Celta Vigo 1–0 Alaves
The model makes it 41% Celta Vigo, 30% draw, 29% Alaves — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Celta Vigo 1.40, Alaves 1.01.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Celta Vigo are 14th on 7 points from 7 games; Alaves are 6th on 11 points from 7 games — La Liga.
- Celta Vigo are unbeaten in 4, most recently a 5-0 win at home to Racing Santander.
- Alaves are without a win in 3, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Athletic Club.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 22 March 2026, ended Celta Vigo 3–4 Alaves.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Celta Vigo vs Alaves
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Celta Vigo at 41% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Celta Vigo vs Alaves
Celta Vigo
- W5-0Racing Santander19 September 2026
- D1-1Malaga13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Getafe7 September 2026
- D0-0away to Real Sociedad3 September 2026
- L0-2Athletic Club30 August 2026
Alaves
- D0-0away to Athletic Club19 September 2026
- L0-1Valencia15 September 2026
- L1-2away to Racing Santander12 September 2026
- W5-2Osasuna6 September 2026
- W1-0Villarreal28 August 2026
What these results say
- Celta Vigo failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Celta Vigo had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Celta Vigo | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 7 |
| 6 | Alaves | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Celta Vigo vs Alaves
- 22 March 2026Celta Vigo 3–4 AlavesLa Liga
- 22 November 2025Alaves 0–1 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 27 January 2025Alaves 1–1 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 16 August 2024Celta Vigo 2–1 AlavesLa Liga
- 27 April 2024Alaves 3–0 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 28 September 2023Celta Vigo 1–1 AlavesLa Liga
Leading scorers: Celta Vigo and Alaves
Celta Vigo
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Alaves
- L. Boyé4 goals
- M. Díaz3 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Celta Vigo carry a model rating of 6.88 against 6.85 for Alaves. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.40 goals for Celta Vigo and 1.01 for Alaves. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Celta Vigo rate 0.91 in attack and 0.87 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Alaves rate 0.95 and 0.95.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Alaves, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Celta Vigo the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Celta Vigo against 1.01 for Alaves. Celta Vigo's attack/defence rating is 0.91/0.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.95/0.95 for Alaves.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Celta Vigo at home · Alaves away
League matches only, La Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Celta Vigo 7, Alaves 7.
Celta Vigo score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Alaves have let in 1 there.
Alaves score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Celta Vigo have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Celta Vigo
- at Celtic22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 33%
- vs Real Betis25 Oct · La Ligawin 33%
- at Rayo Vallecano1 Nov · La Ligawin 32%
Alaves
- vs Malaga25 Oct · La Ligawin 50%
- at Barcelona1 Nov · La Ligawin 15%
- at Sevilla8 Nov · La Ligawin 31%
- vs Deportivo La Coruna22 Nov · La Ligawin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.