Real Madrid
vs
Sevilla
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Real Madrid 2–0 Sevilla
The model makes it 60% Real Madrid, 23% draw, 17% Sevilla — fair odds of 1.67, 4.35 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Real Madrid 2.50, Sevilla 0.79.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- Real Madrid are 4th on 15 points from 7 games; Sevilla are 5th on 13 points from 7 games — La Liga.
- Real Madrid have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Atletico Madrid.
- Sevilla have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Barcelona.
- Last 6 meetings: Real Madrid 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 17 May 2026, ended Sevilla 0–1 Real Madrid.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Real Madrid vs Sevilla
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Real Madrid at 60% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 705 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Real Madrid vs Sevilla
Real Madrid
- L1-2away to Atletico Madrid20 September 2026
- W3-2away to Elche15 September 2026
- W4-1Rayo Vallecano12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Real Betis4 September 2026
- W4-0Malaga30 August 2026
Sevilla
- L1-3Barcelona19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Deportivo La Coruna16 September 2026
- W1-0Valencia11 September 2026
- D1-1away to Espanyol6 September 2026
- L1-3Atletico Madrid29 August 2026
What these results say
- Real Madrid scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Real Madrid conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Real Madrid had three goals or more.
- Sevilla scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Real Madrid | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 15 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Real Madrid vs Sevilla
- 17 May 2026Sevilla 0–1 Real MadridLa Liga
- 20 December 2025Real Madrid 2–0 SevillaLa Liga
- 18 May 2025Sevilla 0–2 Real MadridLa Liga
- 22 December 2024Real Madrid 4–2 SevillaLa Liga
- 25 February 2024Real Madrid 1–0 SevillaLa Liga
- 21 October 2023Sevilla 1–1 Real MadridLa Liga
Leading scorers: Real Madrid and Sevilla
Real Madrid
- Kylian Mbappé7 goals2 assists
- J. Bellingham3 goals2 assists
Sevilla
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Real Madrid carry a model rating of 7.25 against 6.82 for Sevilla. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.50 goals for Real Madrid and 0.79 for Sevilla. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Real Madrid rate 1.59 in attack and 0.71 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sevilla rate 0.91 and 0.97.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Real Madrid a 20% chance of the title and Sevilla 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Real Madrid the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.50 expected goals for Real Madrid against 0.79 for Sevilla. Real Madrid's attack/defence rating is 1.59/0.71 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.91/0.97 for Sevilla.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Real Madrid at home · Sevilla away
League matches only, La Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Real Madrid 7, Sevilla 7.
Real Madrid score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Sevilla have let in 1 there.
Sevilla score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Real Madrid have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Real Madrid
- vs RB Leipzig21 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 55%
- at Barcelona25 Oct · La Ligawin 28%
- at Racing Santander1 Nov · La Ligawin 60%
Sevilla
- vs Osasuna25 Oct · La Ligawin 45%
- at Getafe1 Nov · La Ligawin 31%
- vs Alaves8 Nov · La Ligawin 39%
- vs Real Betis22 Nov · La Ligawin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.