Osasuna
vs
Racing Santander
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Osasuna 2–1 Racing Santander
The model makes it 44% Osasuna, 26% draw, 30% Racing Santander — fair odds of 2.27, 3.85 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Osasuna 2.03, Racing Santander 1.46.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Osasuna are 13th on 8 points from 7 games; Racing Santander are 16th on 7 points from 7 games — La Liga.
- Osasuna are without a win in 4, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Rayo Vallecano.
- Racing Santander have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-5 defeat away to Celta Vigo.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 24 July 2026, ended Osasuna 2–0 Racing Santander.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Osasuna vs Racing Santander
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Osasuna at 44% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Osasuna vs Racing Santander
Osasuna
- D1-1Rayo Vallecano19 September 2026
- L0-4away to Atletico Madrid16 September 2026
- L0-2Espanyol12 September 2026
- L2-5away to Alaves6 September 2026
- W1-0Getafe31 August 2026
Racing Santander
- L0-5away to Celta Vigo19 September 2026
- L2-7away to Barcelona16 September 2026
- W2-1Alaves12 September 2026
- L2-3away to Rayo Vallecano5 September 2026
- W3-2Elche28 August 2026
What these results say
- Osasuna failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Osasuna conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Racing Santander conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Racing Santander had three goals or more.
- Racing Santander scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Osasuna | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 8 |
| 16 | Racing Santander | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Osasuna vs Racing Santander
- 24 July 2026Osasuna 2–0 Racing SantanderFriendlies Clubs
- 2 August 2025Osasuna 0–1 Racing SantanderFriendlies Clubs
- 13 May 2012Racing Santander 2–4 OsasunaLa Liga
- 15 January 2012Osasuna 0–2 Racing SantanderLa Liga
- 13 March 2011Osasuna 3–1 Racing SantanderLa Liga
- 31 October 2010Racing Santander 4–1 OsasunaLa Liga
Leading scorers: Osasuna and Racing Santander
Osasuna
- A. Budimir5 goals
Racing Santander
- M. Zabiri6 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Osasuna carry a model rating of 6.68 against 6.69 for Racing Santander. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.03 goals for Osasuna and 1.46 for Racing Santander. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Osasuna rate 0.80 in attack and 1.12 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Racing Santander rate 1.06 and 1.57.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Osasuna the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Osasuna against 1.46 for Racing Santander. Osasuna's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.06/1.57 for Racing Santander.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Osasuna at home · Racing Santander away
League matches only, La Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Osasuna 7, Racing Santander 7.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Osasuna
- at Sevilla25 Oct · La Ligawin 26%
- at Deportivo La Coruna1 Nov · La Ligawin 25%
- vs Athletic Club8 Nov · La Ligawin 34%
- vs Malaga22 Nov · La Ligawin 44%
Racing Santander
- vs Espanyol25 Oct · La Ligawin 37%
- vs Real Madrid1 Nov · La Ligawin 19%
- at Malaga8 Nov · La Ligawin 34%
- vs Real Sociedad22 Nov · La Ligawin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.